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Mesoscale Discussion 1143
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...ERN WY...FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232209Z - 232345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE THE NEXT
   COUPLE HRS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO AND SERN/E-CNTRL WY.
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...WHICH MAKES WW ISSUANCE
   UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   TOWERING CU OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AS A MID-UPPER
   LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A
   FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD EVOLVE AND MOVE EWD OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...GIVEN STRONG HEATING OCCURRING
   WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS...AND AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
   1500-2500 J/KG POSITIONED FROM ERN CO NWD TO NEAR THE NEB/WY BORDER.
   MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK CINH IS STILL IN
   PLACE...BUT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
   DUE TO ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. STORM
   COVERAGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED DUE TO GRADUAL
   MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES THAT ARE OCCURRING. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR
   TWO...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/DARROW.. 06/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42550429 40640353 39550360 39070393 38880449 39190481
               40140520 41380573 42150587 42560574 42880502 42550429 

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Page last modified: June 23, 2015
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