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Mesoscale Discussion 1145
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI INTO NRN IL AND FAR NW IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251711Z - 251945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
   AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD OUT OF WI AND INTO IL. LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER SWRN WI NEAR A
   WEAK SURFACE LOW AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   MEANWHILE...HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE/MIX LOW CLOUDS SEWD TOWARD
   SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH AN EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER NRN IL.

   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NELY
   SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY AUGMENT THE HODOGRAPHS
   ASSUMING THE AIR IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY CAN
   BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THIS MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING A
   SUPERCELL OR TWO SEWD ACROSS SRN WI INTO NRN IL. THE COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL...WITH A LOCALIZED
   DAMAGING WIND GUST ALWAYS POSSIBLE.

   ..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 06/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43398966 43198938 42488855 42138762 41688718 41198723
               40538758 40648847 41258920 42268991 42799029 43269043
               43459026 43398966 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2014
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