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Mesoscale Discussion 1145
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0554 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241054Z - 241200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong showers and storms may be capable of localized wind
   damage and perhaps a brief tornado. However, the threat should be
   too brief/localized for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1045Z, a line of strong showers and thunderstorms
   was quickly advancing across New Jersey and adjacent New York, aided
   by a passing low-amplitude shortwave trough. KDIX VWP data indicate
   a kinematic profile characterized by strong low/mid-level flow
   upwards of 50-60 kt. In turn, precipitation-drag may transfer some
   of this momentum to the surface, resulting in localized
   gusty/damaging winds. However, the thermodynamic profile will remain
   quite marginal for a more widespread threat. Additionally, while the
   strength of the low-level shear may offer an opportunity for a brief
   tornado, orientation of the low-level shear vectors is fairly
   parallel to the convective line. As such, the tornado threat appears
   quite marginal as well, and watch issuance will not be needed prior
   to the line pushing offshore.

   ..Picca/Dial.. 06/24/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39017569 40467480 41097390 41177247 40537255 39407361
               38597460 38587486 38727544 39017569 

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