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Mesoscale Discussion 1146
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MD 1146 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of the South Carolina piedmont into North
   Carolina coastal plain

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241805Z - 242030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for occasional
   localized strong surface gusts may continue to develop through the
   4-6 PM EDT time frame.  Trends will continue to be monitored, but
   the need for a watch is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Despite generally weak lower/mid tropospheric lapse
   rates, a corridor of stronger pre-frontal boundary layer heating
   (with surface temps around 90F) is contributing to moderate CAPE on
   the order of 1500+ J/kg across parts of the South/North Carolina
   piedmont into the North Carolina coastal plain.  This is occurring
   in the presence of seasonably high moisture content (lower/mid 70s
   surface dew points and 2+ inch precipitable water), and a belt of
   modest west southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow on the order
   of 30 kt.  

   Deepening convective development is already evident within this
   environment, downstream of a subtle mid-level impulse now beginning
   to progress east northeast of the Georgia piedmont.  And further
   intensification seems likely through the peak afternoon heating. 
   Eventually, heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum
   transfer may contribute to a risk for localized potentially damaging
   wind gusts near the stronger activity.  This could include small
   upscale growing clusters, but the potential for the evolution of one
   large well organized convective system seems low, and likely to
   limit widespread severe weather potential.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/24/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34728137 35298021 35537837 35727703 35527607 34847604
               34557860 33588085 33648183 33928177 34728137 

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