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Mesoscale Discussion 1146
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM INTO SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251728Z - 251930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN
   NM WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS OVER SERN NM WITH
   LIGHT ELY WINDS AND 62-65 F DEWPOINTS. SOME OF THIS AIR IS
   RELATIVELY COOL FROM THE OUTFLOW...BUT HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO
   DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. TCU WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE
   SACRAMENTO MTNS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
   ALSO BE A FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND/OR A CORRIDOR FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING ANY SEWD MOVING
   STORMS THAT FORM FARTHER W. SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
   MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

   ..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 06/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31340500 32880576 33700558 33720483 33550418 33330370
               32820323 32170283 31520241 30960230 30270247 29880330
               30050418 30660465 31340500 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2014
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