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Mesoscale Discussion 1147
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of NM and far south-central CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241942Z - 242215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally
   damaging winds should persist through early evening. Watch issuance
   is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath upper ridging centered over northern Mexico and
   the Southwest, persistent weak low-level easterly flow across NM and
   south-central CO is encouraging initially isolated convective
   development across west-central NM. Additional thunderstorms are
   expected to develop across NM this afternoon aided by terrain-driven
   circulations. Visible satellite imagery shows almost total clearing
   along and west of the central mountain chain of NM, and temperatures
   have warmed into the 80s and lower 90s across lower terrain. Modest
   low-level moisture characterized by upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints
   is present across this region, and combined with steep mid-level
   lapse rates and diurnal heating, MLCAPE generally ranging 500-1000
   J/kg has developed. Although mid-level northwesterly winds weaken
   with southern extent across NM, there is sufficient mid-level flow
   to support mainly 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear. This should be
   sufficient to weakly organize thunderstorm updrafts, and isolated
   instances of large hail and strong to locally damaging winds may
   occur with any thunderstorms across this region through the
   remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the early evening.
   There may be some potential for loosely organized convective
   clusters to develop and move southeastward across western/central
   NM, perhaps posing a slightly greater wind threat with time.
   Regardless, the overall severe threat will likely remain too
   isolated to warrant watch issuance due to the marginal
   thermodynamic/kinematic environment.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/24/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33790887 34940870 35480805 37610505 37470418 36520402
               35140449 32910558 31840710 31820819 31510824 31560899

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