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Mesoscale Discussion 1147
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
   MID-ATLANTIC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251749Z - 252015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE-WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES.
   MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
   /FROM 2000 J/KG TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG/...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   VALUES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH /FROM LESS THAN 20
   KNOTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS/. THESE SOMEWHAT COMPENSATING FACTORS
   SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
   SEVERE THREAT BEING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FROM WET DOWNBURSTS GIVEN
   THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS.

   ..MARSH/CARBIN.. 06/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   RLX...

   LAT...LON   40387974 41537850 42167677 42727554 43017194 41987192
               41287344 39817494 38937584 38387708 38587913 38997973
               39757980 40387974 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2014
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