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Mesoscale Discussion 1147
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0932 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...DC...DE...MD...NJ...PA...VA...WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...

   VALID 240232Z - 240300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 50KT REMAIN A
   POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE TIDEWATER AREA OF VA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD
   THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECLINE.

   DISCUSSION...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE
   DECLINE ACROSS EASTERN VA AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SETTLES
   SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TIDEWATER. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY REMAINS
   AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION AND COULD STILL FUEL LOCALLY INTENSE
   UPDRAFTS. THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION
   WAS LIKELY RESULTING IN A MORE MULTICELLULAR CHARACTER TO THE STORMS
   WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NOW SPREADING WELL AHEAD OF SOME OF THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BOUNDARY/CELL MERGERS AND COLD POOL INTERACTIONS
   COULD STILL PROMOTE BRIEF MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS RESULTING
   SHORT-LIVED STRONGER WIND GUSTS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF AMBIENT
   INSTABILITY BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST WATCH SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO
   EXPIRE AT 0300 UTC/11 PM EDT.

   ..CARBIN/DARROW.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37397535 37287730 37317831 37807812 38117710 38317576
               38337469 37397535 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2015
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