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Mesoscale Discussion 1148
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEBRASKA...NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 240426Z - 240630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

   DISCUSSION...NOCTURNAL LLJ IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN KS
   LATE THIS EVENING.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB
   SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 50KT AS FLOW VEERS ACROSS WRN KS DURING THE
   PRE-DAWN HOURS.  EARLIER CONVECTION THAT EVOLVED OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES HAS SINCE PROGRESSED INTO NERN CO/SWRN
   NEBRASKA...JUST NORTH OF SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ALONG THE
   I-70 CORRIDOR.  LATEST MRMS DATA SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL AT TIMES AND GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WARM ADVECTION
   MAY DRIVE CONVECTION EWD ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.  WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION BUT UNLESS A LARGER COMPLEX EVOLVES
   OR TSTMS BECOME MORE INTENSE WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..DARROW.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40140294 40590013 40039928 39379978 39230267 40140294 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2015
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