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Mesoscale Discussion 1148
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1148
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251908Z - 252145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development is expected to be
   accompanied by increasing severe weather potential across parts of
   New Mexico this afternoon, particularly near and east/southeast of
   the Sangre de Cristo Mountains by around 6 PM MDT.  It seems likely
   that a watch will be needed at some point, although it remains a bit
   uncertain just how soon.

   DISCUSSION...Inhibition is becoming increasingly negligible for
   moist boundary layer parcels within easterly/southeasterly upslope
   flow across the  high Plains into the mountains of eastern New
   Mexico.  The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that mixed layer CAPE has
   become moderately large along the Guadalupe and Sacramento
   Mountains, where deepening convective development is already
   initiating.  With additional insolation, further intensification of
   storms appears probable, in the presence of modest shear primarily
   due to pronounced veering with height of near surface to mid-level
   wind fields.

   North/northwesterly mid-level flow is a bit stronger across the
   Sangre de Cristo Mountains/Raton Mesa area, where boundary layer
   destabilization has been slower due to early day cloud cover. 
   However, further insolation may contribute to the initiation of new
   storms across this area as early as 20-22Z, where/when the evolution
   of a couple of supercells appears possible, accompanied by a risk
   for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.  

   It appears that any appreciable upscale convective growth east of
   the mountains may not occur until closer to, or after, 26/00Z, in
   response to forcing associated with a mid/upper perturbation now
   slowly pivoting northeastward and eastward around the subtropical
   high center.  This forcing may be aiding ongoing increasing
   convective development across the mountains west of the Rio Grande
   River.  This activity may continue to increase in coverage while
   spreading across the Socorro, Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas within
   the next few hours.  Although, CAPE and deep layer mean flow/shear
   are less conducive to severe storm development than areas to the
   east of the Sacramento and and Sangre de Cristo Mountains, a warm
   and fairly deeply mixed sub-cloud layer may be conducive to
   localized strong wind gusts across the Rio Grande Valley.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/25/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32840583 32900679 33270761 33820728 34400708 35460678
               35710639 36260608 36730514 36960405 36470368 35910361
               35230430 34390396 32490410 31800485 32840583 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2017
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