|Mesoscale Discussion 1149|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Areas affected...Southeast CO...Eastern NM...Northwest TX/OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370...
Valid 252312Z - 260045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370
SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible across
the entire watch area. Some very large hail (i.e. greater than 2
inches in diameter) and a tornado or two are also possible. Upscale
growth into a convective line may eventually occur, enhancing the
damaging wind threat.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows numerous severe
thunderstorms currently ongoing across eastern NM. Primary threat
with these thunderstorms is large hail. Some very large hail (i.e.
greater than 2 inches in diameter) is also possible, particularly as
a result of storm/boundary interactions. Continued upslope flow
regime coupled with dewpoints in the 60s, steep mid-level lapse
rates, and moderate/strong bulk shear will favor continued
strong/severe thunderstorm development across eastern NM. Primary
threat for the next hour or two will remain large hail, although
some damaging wind gusts are also possible. Eventually, some cold
pool amalgamation/upscale growth is anticipated, with the
northwesterly mean flow favoring southeastward propagation into
east-central NM and the adjacent west-central portions of the TX
panhandle. Northern extent of the eventual convective line will
likely be demarcated by the southwestward progressing outflow
boundary emanating from the discrete supercell that move through
Baca county CO and is currently moving through Cimarron county OK.
Very large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible with this
supercell as it tracks southward along a remnant outflow boundary.
Boundary interactions may also contribute to increased tornado
potential with this supercell as well as other storms across the
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 32910637 37850409 37840117 32910357 32910637
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