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Mesoscale Discussion 1149
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1149
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast CO...Eastern NM...Northwest TX/OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370...

   Valid 252312Z - 260045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370

   SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible across
   the entire watch area. Some very large hail (i.e. greater than 2
   inches in diameter) and a tornado or two are also possible. Upscale
   growth into a convective line may eventually occur, enhancing the
   damaging wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows numerous severe
   thunderstorms currently ongoing across eastern NM. Primary threat
   with these thunderstorms is large hail. Some very large hail (i.e.
   greater than 2 inches in diameter) is also possible, particularly as
   a result of storm/boundary interactions. Continued upslope flow
   regime coupled with dewpoints in the 60s, steep mid-level lapse
   rates, and moderate/strong bulk shear will favor continued
   strong/severe thunderstorm development across eastern NM. Primary
   threat for the next hour or two will remain large hail, although
   some damaging wind gusts are also possible. Eventually, some cold
   pool amalgamation/upscale growth is anticipated, with the
   northwesterly mean flow favoring southeastward propagation into
   east-central NM and the adjacent west-central portions of the TX
   panhandle. Northern extent of the eventual convective line will
   likely be demarcated by the southwestward progressing outflow
   boundary emanating from the discrete supercell that move through
   Baca county CO and is currently moving through Cimarron county OK.
   Very large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible with this
   supercell as it tracks southward along a remnant outflow boundary.
   Boundary interactions may also contribute to increased tornado
   potential with this supercell as well as other storms across the

   ..Mosier.. 06/25/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32910637 37850409 37840117 32910357 32910637 

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