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Mesoscale Discussion 1149
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251928Z - 252130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO A
   LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CORES.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AMIDST AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE VALUES OF
   1500-3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS
   THE AREA /WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/...STEEP
   LOW-/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS/DRY MICROBURSTS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 21
   UTC.

   AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS...INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM COLD POOLS MAY EVENTUALLY
   CONGEAL/GROW UPSCALE INTO A LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
   GIVEN THE MEAGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   SHOULD ULTIMATELY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
   BECOMES FAVORED ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN FLANKS...CLOSER TO THE
   BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

   ..MARSH/CARBIN.. 06/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
   GJT...

   LAT...LON   39790613 41000686 41000463 40990207 39820199 37810200
               35630204 35610377 35600498 35600592 37740605 38750609
               39790613 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2014
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