Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1149
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1149 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB / WRN THROUGH SRN IA / NRN MO /
   W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 240539Z - 240645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF
   STORMS WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT
   THE TERMINUS OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ...ELEVATED TSTMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED FROM E OF SUX TO NEAR AND SW OF DSM AS OF 0520Z. 
   OTHER STORMS WERE DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME DOWNSTREAM FROM A SMALL
   MCS NEAR MCK OVER CNTRL NEB /N OF GRI/. THESE LOW-LEVEL FORCING
   MECHANISMS WILL PERSIST /AND LIKELY STRENGTHEN/ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS...PROMOTING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA.  

   WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE 00Z OAX AND TOP
   SOUNDINGS WERE NOT FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH...RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE ADVECTED POLEWARD...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
   FOR MOST-UNSTABLE PARCELS.  AND GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND AMPLE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

   RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST
   PROBABILITY FOR MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS OVER CNTRL INTO
   ERN NEB WHERE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD BECOME A CONCERN IN
   ADDITION TO THE HAIL THREAT.  AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..MEAD.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41370013 42069969 42579490 42199338 41339198 40199091
               39489131 39289174 39399261 39919398 40479520 40699631
               40819792 40769947 41370013 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 24, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities