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Mesoscale Discussion 1150
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252144Z - 260015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WIND
   GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...ASCENT PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORMS INVOF A
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM PORTLAND MAINE TO ALBANY NEW
   YORK TO AN ELONGATED FRONTAL INFLECTION/1009-MB SFC LOW OVER NERN
   PA. THE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FARTHER SW INTO S-CNTRL PA AND THE ERN WV
   PANHANDLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG WHICH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
   BECOMING LOOSELY ORGANIZED IN QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE AIR MASS ON
   THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY CONTAINS AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE...OWING TO DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS -- E.G.
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F AND PW OF 1.8-2.1 INCHES
   PER GPS DATA. VIS IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD STREETS STREAMING NWD INTO
   THE FRONTAL ZONE...HIGHLIGHTING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION AMIDST MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. CONVECTION
   WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION AIDED BY
   WEAK-MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   20-30 KT.

   MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE...AIDED BY WATER LOADING PROCESSES...PARTICULARLY WITH
   CONVECTION FROM SERN NY SWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE MID-LEVEL FLOW
   IS ORIENTED MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. FARTHER
   N...SMALLER BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A
   WEAK TORNADO MAY OCCUR...AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE ORIENTED MORE
   BOUNDARY-PARALLEL. THIS COULD FAVOR ENHANCED RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN
   THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH FEATURES ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW
   LCLS...AND SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK/BROAD CYCLONIC
   CIRCULATIONS INVOF THE FRONT OVER COASTAL SRN MAINE VICINITY.
   HOWEVER...POOR TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN LATER IN
   THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING INCREASES BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC
   STABILITY IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   42887362 43477049 42817049 42287121 41077381 38767672
               38907859 39627823 40807692 42307484 42887362 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2014
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