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Mesoscale Discussion 1150
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1150
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0928 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern NM...Western TX Panhandle...TX South
   Plains/Permian Basin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370...

   Valid 260228Z - 260400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible for the next
   few hours across watch 370. Transition to more of a linear system
   appears to be underway with a resulting downstream threat for
   isolated strong/severe wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery continues to show
   numerous strong to severe storms across eastern NM and the northwest
   TX Panhandle. Radar imagery also appears to show the presence of a
   MCV across northern Lincoln county in east-central NM. The presence
   of this MCV coupled with an overall southeastward surge of the
   storms across the region suggests that the development of a linear
   convective system is underway. Additionally, imminent interaction
   between the long-lived supercell moving over Hartley county TX and
   the convective cluster over San Miguel and Quay counties in
   northeast NM is expected to further foster upscale growth. Resulting
   convective line will likely stretch from near AMA southwestward to
   south-central NM. 

   Anticipated linear development will result in a transition of
   primary severe threat from hail to damaging wind gusts. However, 
   given the marginal instability of the downstream airmass (i.e. less
   than 1000 J/kg MUCAPE on the 00Z MAF sounding), the extent and
   severity of these wind gusts is uncertain. Current expectation is
   for the developing MCS to prolong the duration of the storms across
   the region but with a general loss in intensity. Isolated damaging
   wind gusts will be possible outside of WW 370 across portions of the
   TX South Plains and Permian Basin but the limited spatial extent and
   overall marginality of the anticipated gusts will likely preclude
   the need for a downstream watch. Even so, convective trends will be
   monitored closely.

   ..Mosier.. 06/26/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   34580509 35930452 36680304 35720186 32600222 32090350
               32530572 34580509 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2017
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