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Mesoscale Discussion 1151
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE WY...SW SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347...

   VALID 240823Z - 241000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. A
   TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LINEAR MCS MAY BE UNDERWAY WITH SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR THE SVR THREAT TO MOVE E/SE OF THE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLUSTER OF
   TSTMS ACROSS WESTON CO WY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ARCING FROM
   THIS CLUSTER EWD INTO SW SD. RECENT MESH DATA HAS SHOWN A PERSISTENT
   SIGNAL FOR 1.50 INCH HAIL WITHIN THE CLUSTER AND THE CELLULAR
   DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. ADDITIONALLY...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
   SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STORM MODE HAS BEEN
   REALIZED.

   GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR OVER THE AREA /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
   AROUND 50 KT/ AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED
   ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL PERSISTING.
   LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SELY
   PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
   EXIT THE WATCH AREA BEFORE EXPIRATION. AS SUCH...LOCAL WATCH
   EXTENSION AND/OR NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   44840519 45180457 45260386 45220321 44930207 44100131
               43070115 42350292 43520505 44840519 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2015
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