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Mesoscale Discussion 1151
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252207Z - 260000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED ON THE
   WARM SIDE OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ANALYZED 20-40 MILES INLAND FROM
   THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SE OF
   MANISTEE IS SHIFTING SEWD...WITH MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION SHIFTING
   SEWD NEAR GRAND RAPIDS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   SEWD/SSEWD INTO THE EVENING...AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CROSSES THE
   REGION. MLCAPE HAS BEEN BOOSTED TO 500-1000 J/KG FOLLOWING EARLIER
   EROSION OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THE GRR VWP SAMPLES 25-30 KT OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WHICH COULD
   SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SUSTENANCE. ISOLATED SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   GIVEN COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT AMIDST MODERATE DEEP SHEAR.
   ALSO...GIVEN CURRENT STORM MOTIONS WELL DEVIANT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
   MEAN FLOW AND A WEAK SUPERCELL MODE...RELATIVELY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   SRH -- ALBEIT MODEST -- MAY SUPPORT A WEAK TORNADO RISK ESPECIALLY
   WITH MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION NEAR THE VORTICITY-RICH LAKE BREEZE.
   HOWEVER...WITH UPCOMING NOCTURNAL COOLING YIELDING LESSENING OF
   ALREADY LIMITED BUOYANCY...THE SVR RISK WILL BE LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE
   AND TIME.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41898556 43248602 43848601 43968544 43688505 42548469
               41898467 41898556 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2014
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