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Mesoscale Discussion 1151
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1151
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

   Areas affected...the Texas South Plains into parts of the Permian
   Basin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260454Z - 260530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The corridor for 50-60 kt gusts will likely remain
   confined to areas northwest/west of Lubbock and north/east of
   Plainview during the next hour with a southward-migrating squall
   line.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature squall line from the TX
   South Plains southwestward into southeastern NM.  Measured severe
   gusts at multiple West TX Mesonet stations have observed gusts
   ranging from 50-71 kt during the past hour ---peak gust of 71-kt at
   Muleshoe.  Despite nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer and a
   low-level stable inversion, a MCV and associated rear-inflow jet
   will likely aid at least a risk for isolated severe gusts for the
   next hour and perhaps longer.  Yet, the additional need for a severe
   watch due to a severe risk persisting for 3 or more hours south of
   the ongoing squall line/severe watch 370 is in doubt.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 06/26/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32380408 34360252 34870099 34370089 33090171 32090317
               32060380 32380408 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2017
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