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Mesoscale Discussion 1152
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1152
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

   Areas affected...Southern NE...Northern KS...Eastern CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261903Z - 262030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are
   possible this afternoon, with a threat of large hail and locally
   damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently intensified across
   southwest NE, with additional towering cumulus noted extending into
   far northeast CO along a weak cold front. Towering cumulus has also
   recently developed across along a weak surface trough into
   east-central CO. While large-scale forcing is subtle at best, slight
   moistening noted on WV imagery is suggestive that modest ascent is
   overspreading the region. Additional storms will likely be focused
   along the weak cold front extending from northeast CO into southwest
   NE/north-central KS, and also along a NNW-SSE oriented outflow
   boundary running from north of Concordia, KS to just east of Salina,

   Moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will continue to support
   effective shear of 35-45 kts through the afternoon, which will be
   sufficient to support organized convection, and a few supercells
   will be possible later this afternoon. Buoyancy and midlevel lapse
   rates are greatest across eastern CO/northwest KS/southwest NE and
   decrease with eastward extent, but MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg across
   the MCD area will be sufficient for some hail risk with the
   strongest cells. Weak low-level flow will tend to limit the damaging
   wind risk to some extent, but steep low-level lapse rates will
   support some wind gust potential, especially with any upscale growth
   that may occur later this afternoon. 

   Some uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of the severe threat
   this afternoon, but watch issuance is possible if multiple organized
   cells/clusters appear imminent.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/26/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40810231 40379938 40129760 39759725 38499624 38379722
               38490112 38610319 39250343 40420306 40810231 

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