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Mesoscale Discussion 1152
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN/SRN OK...NORTH TX...SERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND ERN TX S PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252241Z - 260115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ANALYZED ACROSS N TX FROM W OF
   SHERMAN/DENISON TO NEAR MINERAL WELLS TO SRN SECTIONS OF THE TX S
   PLAINS...AND ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE FROM W OF ENID TO S
   OF CLINTON TO NEAR AMARILLO. VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THESE
   BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER
   CUMULUS WITH DEEPER CONVECTION MOST ACTIVE ALONG THE SRN BOUNDARY.
   DESPITE LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION REMAINING NEARLY
   NEGLIGIBLE...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OWING TO
   CONVERGENCE RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...ASCENT ON
   LEADING EDGES OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED COLD POOLS...AND WEAK ASCENT
   BETWEEN THE BOUNDARIES WHERE PBL CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO ACT ON A
   WEAKLY CAPPED AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

   WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO
   HIGH THETA-E IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS
   CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL MAY ENSUE...AND SOME
   POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A STORM TO BRIEFLY BREACH SEVERE LIMITS.
   HOWEVER...WITH AOB 20 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS PER AREA
   VWPS...DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK SUPPORTING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION...IN GENERAL. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN N TX
   AND VICINITY WHERE VWPS SAMPLE 20-25 KT OF 5-6-KM-AGL NWLYS TO
   SLIGHTLY ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR. SUSTAINED/MERGING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
   MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE THE SVR RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM AROUND JACK AND
   ERN YOUNG COUNTIES. HOWEVER...STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE SHOULD
   DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS NOCTURNAL COOLING YIELDS STABILIZATION OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33039761 32549942 33320034 34760171 35470148 35599962
               36599814 35169703 34039700 33039761 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2014
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