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Mesoscale Discussion 1152
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0519 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD...FAR NW NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347...

   VALID 241019Z - 241115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE
   WATCH IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO END AT 11Z. HOWEVER...TRENDS ACROSS
   THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF AN EXTENSION
   IN TIME FOR WW 347 OR POTENTIALLY A NEW WATCH IF THE THREAT ACROSS
   N-CNTRL NEB IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

   DISCUSSION...SEWD MOTION OF THE TSTM CLUSTER ACROSS CUSTER...FALL
   RIVER...AND SHANNON COUNTIES IN SD HAS RECENTLY INCREASED WHILE THE
   CELLS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SHANNON COUNTY WY AND NE SHERIDAN CO NEB
   HAVE MOST RECENTLY SHOWN AT LEAST SOME DECREASE IN STRENGTH. THE
   INITIALLY NEWD MOTION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND THAT DEVELOPED AS A
   RESULT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS NEB APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A BIT
   WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CELLS NOW MOVING MORE ELY. THIS TURN
   HAS KEPT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY JUST S OF THE NEB BORDER /AND S OF WW
   347/. THE SLIGHT VEERING ANTICIPATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS WELL
   AS RECENT TRENDS DO NOT SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP.
   HOWEVER...THE SEWD MOVING TSTM IN FALL RIVER WILL LIKELY TRACK
   ACROSS THE BORDER SOON. THIS STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT
   HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED TSTM ACTIVITY SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LEFT TO FOSTER CONTINUED SEWD
   PROGRESSION AND/OR SVR THREAT. 

   GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM PERSISTENCE...IT IS UNCLEAR
   WHETHER WW 347 SHOULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME PAST ITS ORIGINAL
   EXPIRATION TIME OF 11Z. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND THERE IS AT
   LEAST SOME POTENTIAL THAT A LOCAL TIME EXTENSION WILL BE NEEDED. IF
   TRENDS INCREASE ACROSS SD A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT GIVEN THE
   EXPECTATION OF ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT THE PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL
   WATCH ISSUANCE IS LOW.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43380394 43980370 44150232 43820091 43540051 42620051
               42470157 42600259 42760335 42910365 43380394 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2015
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