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Mesoscale Discussion 1153
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1019 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEBRASKA INTO SWRN/CNTRL IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241519Z - 241715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
   THE DAY WITH HAIL AND WIND EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER
   AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
   APPEARS TO BE JUST BEHIND A LEADING COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED NLY WELL AHEAD OF THESE
   STORMS.

   RADAR TRENDS ALSO INDICATE SPORADIC CELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING A FEED OF UNSTABLE AIR N
   OF THIS BOUNDARY.

   CURRENTLY...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE
   SURFACE...WITH 12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE UP TO
   700 MB AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE. HOWEVER...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES DUE TO POCKETS OF HEATING AS WELL AS MIXING WITH SWLY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
   ONGOING ACTIVITY.

   GIVE THE SIZE OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER...AND RECENT RADAR
   TRENDS...UPSCALE GROWTH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DESPITE THE
   RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

   ..JEWELL/GUYER.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   40659583 40979763 41389811 41739792 42219750 42399628
               41899378 41569349 40839372 40659403 40629493 40659583 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2015
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