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Mesoscale Discussion 1153
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MT/EASTERN WY INTO WEST-CENTRAL SD/NEB
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355...

   VALID 252307Z - 260030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO RISK REMAINS A CONCERN MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT/FAR
   EASTERN WY INTO WEST-CENTRAL SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH
   EARLY/MID-EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355 CONTINUES UNTIL
   03Z.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT/FAR EASTERN WY AND
   WEST-CENTRAL SD/NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING. PER WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND DATA...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
   SOME INCREASE IN WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE
   AIDING STORM DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT. SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE MAY EXCEED
   2000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN SD/NEB PANHANDLE. THE RELATIVELY
   GREATEST/MOST SUSTAINED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
   HAIL /AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADO/ RISK...WILL SEEMINGLY EXIST
   ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WY/WEST-CENTRAL SD IN VICINITY OF A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ANGLES NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
   ACROSS THE REGION. OVER TIME...WITH AID OF AN MODESTLY INCREASING
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...STORM MERGERS MAY LEAD TO SOME
   CLUSTERING/UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY/MID-EVENING
   WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO BEING A CONCERN.

   ..GUYER.. 06/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   46420608 45940375 45100153 44220075 43340229 41230226
               41120410 41990495 43780498 45070545 45530640 46420608 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2014
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