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Mesoscale Discussion 1154
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1154
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast KS...Far southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262048Z - 262215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm or two is possible this
   afternoon, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind.

   DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm has recently developed between
   Emporia and Chanute in southeast KS, with other attempts at
   initiation noted along a surface boundary draped from near
   Springfield MO northwest into central KS. While instability is
   rather weak, given poor midlevel lapse rates noted in the 17Z Lamont
   sounding and area PFCs and seasonably modest low-level moisture,
   heating south of the boundary has allowed MLCAPE to rise into the
   500-1000 J/kg range. Modest midlevel northwesterly flow atop weak
   low-level southwesterlies is resulting in effective shear of 30-40
   kts, which is sufficient for some storm organization with the
   strongest updrafts. Isolated instances of hail, and perhaps strong
   wind gusts, will be possible as convection develops along the weak
   surface boundary and moves southeast. Given the relatively limited
   coverage and magnitude of the severe threat, watch issuance is not
   currently anticipated.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/26/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38459730 38209608 37689426 37579358 37109377 37039458
               37229634 37559722 37999753 38459730 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2017
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