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Mesoscale Discussion 1155
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241827Z - 242030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
   MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...WITH A
   CELL IN CROOK COUNTY WYOMING EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS IN
   THE PAST HOUR.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF ANY
   TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT DEEP SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND PERHAPS ROTATION IN ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN 45-50
   KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG POSSIBLY
   HELPING TO MAINTAIN STORMS AND A SEVERE HAIL THREAT INTO CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  HOWEVER...A PREVIOUS
   STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN WYOMING DISSIPATED 2 HOURS
   AGO...WHICH CASTS DOUBTS ON WHETHER EXISTING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE INTO A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT.

   LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED INSOLATION AND LOW-LEVEL
   EASTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG
   TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  PERHAPS
   THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REFLECTED IN CUMULUS FIELD
   EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING CURRENTLY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   ALSO POSE A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OFF
   OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY.

   ..COOK/GUYER.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   43810177 43040216 41800315 41340421 41410501 41940561
               42970548 44080513 44380506 44920487 45230452 45460384
               45680281 45560207 45170160 44480152 43810177 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2015
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