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Mesoscale Discussion 1155
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1155
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262153Z - 270030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A very isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may develop
   through this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has recently intensified across the higher
   terrain of the northern Rockies and into the adjacent northern High
   Plains, possibly in association with a minor shortwave trough over
   western MT/northern ID embedded within large-scale ridging over much
   of the western CONUS. The boundary layer has become very well mixed
   this afternoon across this region from latest surface observations
   and 20Z RAP forecast soundings, and DCAPE estimates now range from 
   1000 to 1500 J/kg per 21Z RAP Mesoanalysis. VWP from TFX depicts a
   modestly veering and strengthening wind profile through mid levels,
   with around 30 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear capable of supporting some
   modest updraft organization. The thermodynamic environment remains
   very marginal, however, with MLCAPE generally 250 J/kg or less.
   Regardless, nearly dry adiabatic low-level lapse rates should
   support a very isolated strong/gusty convective downdraft wind
   threat with developing thunderstorms across central MT though this
   evening. Recent runs of the operational HRRR suggest some potential
   for one or more small clusters to develop into the northern High
   Plains of central/eastern MT over the next few hours. The overall
   severe threat will likely remain too isolated to warrant watch
   issuance.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 06/26/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   45101089 44881210 46471227 47301239 47971258 48481208
               48441003 48320851 47670806 46550789 45530820 45440947
               45101089 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2017
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