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Mesoscale Discussion 1156
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1156
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

   Areas affected...South-central/southeast CO...Northeast NM...Far
   western OK Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262340Z - 270145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail and
   strong wind gusts are possible throughout the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery show widely scattered
   thunderstorms ongoing over south-central/southeast CO and adjacent
   far northeast NM. Storms closer to the higher terrain across
   south-central CO developed within the persist upslope flow and
   favorable orographic circulations. Most isolated storms farther east
   appear to have developed along a pair of residual outflow
   boundaries, one stretched across Baca county CO and the other
   farther north in Lincoln and Cheyenne counties. Large-scale
   kinematic environment is similar across the entire region with
   generally easterly surface winds veering with height to become
   northwesterly aloft. Recent PUX VAD sampled over 35 kt of 0-6 km
   bulk shear. Shear increases slightly with eastward extent as a
   result of stronger mid-level flow. Thermodynamic environment also
   improves with eastward extent. Recent MLCAPE estimates from
   mesoanalysis suggest around 500 J/kg across south-central CO
   increasing to around 1500 J/kg over far southeast CO. Overall, this
   environment is supportive of strong, organized updrafts capable of
   large hail with any persist convection. High storm bases could also
   result in strong wind gusts. Scattered nature of the convection is
   expected to preclude the need for a watch but trends across the
   region will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/26/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36340501 37310560 38050551 38480488 38540372 38210264
               37100191 36280341 36340501 

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