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Mesoscale Discussion 1157
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 260655Z - 260830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A SMALL
   CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING ESEWD AT 30 KT THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KS. 
   A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS UNLIKELY...AND PRECLUDES THE
   NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING SURFACE-BASED
   INHIBITION PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...THE SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS
   CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KS PER RADAR IMAGERY/
   LIGHTNING DATA IS LIKELY BEING SUSTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA.  IN
   ADDITION...THE SRN EXTENT OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY MOVING
   EWD THROUGH CENTRAL SD AND WRN/CENTRAL NEB...APPEARS TO BE GLANCING
   THE KS ACTIVITY.  ALTHOUGH THE LLJ MAY VEER SOME PER GUIDANCE...
   CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS WILL MOVE
   EAST OF THE MAIN AXIS OF THE LLJ WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
   WRN KS THROUGH 12Z.  THIS TREND COMBINED WITH ANY INFLUENCES FROM
   THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LATTER FEATURE MOVES EWD
   AWAY FROM NRN KS.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE PRESENCE OF 700-500 MB
   LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40 KT AND
   MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING DISPLACED FROM
   FORCING MECHANISMS IN A FEW HOURS.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 06/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39179973 39519943 39859929 39829890 39739824 39579795
               39169787 38809794 38709817 38769871 38919941 38979969
               39179973 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2014
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