MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC AND PORTIONS OF ERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 161739Z - 161915Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF SC INTO
   PORTIONS OF ERN GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW.
   
   MIDDAY SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
   NERN SC INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN SC...AND THEN WNW INTO NRN GA AND
   MIDDLE TN. SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST PLAINS OF GA AND
   SC...THE SURFACE AIRMASS HAS HEATED RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE
   MORNING...RESULTING IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS
   SURFACE HEATING IS JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS...AND IS AIDING
   IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES
   AROUND 2500 J PER KG ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AND MODIFIED
   RUC SOUNDINGS/. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...DISPLAYING MULTICELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN
   THE GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS THE
   REGION. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS GIVEN
   THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE. THE LARGE HAIL
   THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND HIGH FREEZING LEVEL.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/16/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   34388004 33797872 32947933 31908088 31658166 32458210
               34338220 34388004