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Mesoscale Discussion 1157
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1157
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0700 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

   Areas affected...Central NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270000Z - 270200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are possible across central NM for
   the next few hours. Some hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
   but general lack of storm organization is expected to preclude the
   need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has increased over the higher
   terrain over the past hour or so and an outflow boundary is now
   tracking southwestward through interior portions of central NM. Some
   development is possible along this outflow boundary but storms are
   expected to be relatively short-lived and disorganized, owing
   primarily to the lack of stronger shear across the area. Even so,
   some hail (likely sub-severe) and damaging wind gusts are possible.
   Farther east, storms currently ongoing over the higher terrain will
   continue to pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
   Deep mixing within the downstream airmass over Lincoln, Torrance and
   Guadalupe counties has resulted in an increase in convective
   inhibition, suggesting that the activity will be short-lived once it
   moves east off the higher terrain. Overall lack of organization
   within the storms across the region is expected to keep the severe
   threat brief and/or isolated, precluding the need for a watch.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/27/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   34200679 35490709 36050692 36220573 35950504 35240466
               33010484 32770623 34200679 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2017
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