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Mesoscale Discussion 1157
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA...FAR NWRN MO AND SERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241923Z - 242130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WE ARE MONITORING AN AREA ACROSS SWRN IA AND VICINITY FOR
   A CONDITIONAL TORNADO AND SIG HAIL THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   INTERSECTING NEAR THE MO RIVER FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA WHERE
   STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS
   AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 F WHICH
   WHEN COMBINED WITH FURTHER HEATING WILL YIELD VERY STRONG
   INSTABILITY. 

   WIND PROFILES NEAR THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
   BOTH SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. DESPITE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE TO THE
   CONTRARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
   AFTERNOON IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS DISPLACED A
   BIT FARTHER NEWD TOWARD EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. IF CU
   FIELDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY CAN SUSTAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...A
   WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..JEWELL/GUYER.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41379543 41559453 41609345 41459288 41209251 40789251
               40349285 40019324 40099433 40329530 40459600 40779610
               41009606 41379543 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2015
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