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Mesoscale Discussion 1158
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MD 1158 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF COLORADO....FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND
   FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242034Z - 242200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
   DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AN UPTICK IN DEVELOPMENT/INTENSITY NOTED OVER
   THE PAST TWO HOURS.  THE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
   BY 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG WITH 20-40 F DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
   AMIDST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
   OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF THE
   DENVER METRO/...MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER SUGGESTING
   THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT OFF HIGHER TERRAIN MAY POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT
   FARTHER EAST INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.  OVERALL...THE WIND/HAIL
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WW
   ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING
   LINEAR SEGMENTS /MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
   ADJACENT AREAS/...THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY INCREASE.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/GUYER.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36740457 36250501 36300543 36630571 37200575 37710569
               38310561 39140561 39980560 40790556 41560532 41840489
               41910394 41740332 41320271 40970251 40350235 39660252
               38920288 38030356 37410402 36940444 36740457 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2015
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