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Mesoscale Discussion 1158
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...NE WY...FAR SW ND AND WRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261835Z - 262030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT AND ERN WY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND TRACK E/NE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. A WATCH
   MAY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN WY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES WITH
   THE APPROACH OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING ACROSS SE ID/FAR
   WRN WY PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE WAS NOTED IN 18Z
   MESOANALYSIS EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN WY INTO ERN CO.
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE HAS
   TRANSPORTED MID 50S TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO ERN MT/WY AND THE WRN
   DAKOTAS. AS HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK
   CAPPING WILL ERODE AND SBCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE
   FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. STORMS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN ISOLATED BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND EVENTUALLY MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN E/NEWD
   ADVANCING MCS LATER THIS EVENING AS STORMS TRACK INTO THE WRN
   DAKOTAS/NE MT.

   ..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 06/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   42990505 43380628 44060731 44930814 46390851 47520838
               48550746 48960620 48950531 48580456 47150340 46420291
               44850250 44180256 43540285 43140342 42990411 42990505 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2014
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