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Mesoscale Discussion 1158
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1158
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0725 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

   Areas affected...East-central/southeast KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270025Z - 270230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible for the
   next hour or two with the supercell moving across east-central KS. A
   brief tornado is also possible. Isolated nature of the severe threat
   is expected to preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A well-developed supercell is moving into Marion and
   McPherson counties in east-central KS. Recent surface analysis and
   visible satellite imagery shows a composite cold front/outflow
   boundary extending from very near SLN south-southeastward through
   EQA and then southeastward to just north of IDP. Marion/McPherson
   county supercell strengthened and produced a tornado as it
   interacted with this boundary back in SLN. Current storm motion is
   southeastward towards the composite boundary over southeast KS,
   which may result in additional brief tornadoes as the enhanced
   surface vorticity along the boundary is ingested into the storm.
   Some upscale growth is also possible, particularly if stronger
   storms end up developing along the boundary ahead of the supercells.
   However, given the weak instability downstream, an well-organized
   convective system is anticipated. Primary threats right now are
   large hail and damaging wind gusts, although, as previously
   mentioned, a brief tornado or two is possible. Severe threat is
   expected to stay isolated, precluding higher watch probabilities,
   but convective trends will still be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37529748 38249764 38649742 38739670 37739503 36809499
               36809692 37529748 

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