Mesoscale Discussion 1158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Areas affected...East-central/southeast KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270025Z - 270230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible for the
next hour or two with the supercell moving across east-central KS. A
brief tornado is also possible. Isolated nature of the severe threat
is expected to preclude watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...A well-developed supercell is moving into Marion and
McPherson counties in east-central KS. Recent surface analysis and
visible satellite imagery shows a composite cold front/outflow
boundary extending from very near SLN south-southeastward through
EQA and then southeastward to just north of IDP. Marion/McPherson
county supercell strengthened and produced a tornado as it
interacted with this boundary back in SLN. Current storm motion is
southeastward towards the composite boundary over southeast KS,
which may result in additional brief tornadoes as the enhanced
surface vorticity along the boundary is ingested into the storm.
Some upscale growth is also possible, particularly if stronger
storms end up developing along the boundary ahead of the supercells.
However, given the weak instability downstream, an well-organized
convective system is anticipated. Primary threats right now are
large hail and damaging wind gusts, although, as previously
mentioned, a brief tornado or two is possible. Severe threat is
expected to stay isolated, precluding higher watch probabilities,
but convective trends will still be monitored closely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37529748 38249764 38649742 38739670 37739503 36809499