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Mesoscale Discussion 1159
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0417 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IOWA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
   NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHERN
   MISSOURI...AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262117Z - 262230Z

   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC AND LAPSE RATE UNITS

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS CURRENTLY
   NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
   OF A COMPACT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING
   ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT THAT THESE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
   INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500-4000 J/KG/...BUT
   RELATIVELY WEAK/MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE LACK OF BETTER
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR
   ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...ALTHOUGH WEAK/MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES /GENERALLY BETWEEN 6-6.5 C/KM/ WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED BRIEF/SPOTTY NATURE OF
   THE SEVERE THREAT...A WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.

   ..MARSH/CARBIN.. 06/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...
   OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40929821 42069704 44029665 44589585 43349179 41759053
               39879039 39349174 39529563 39989769 40929821 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2014
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