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Mesoscale Discussion 1159
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF GEORGIA/ALABAMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348...

   VALID 242144Z - 242315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 348.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW 348. WHERE
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS NOT BEEN ABUNDANT...THE PRESENCE OF
   LOWER/MIDDLE 90S SFC TEMPS AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
   CONTINUES FOSTERING MLCAPE AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG -- AIDED BY
   MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE MUCH-EARLIER
   12Z FFC RAOB. SUCH BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSE
   UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SVR WIND/HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING...DESPITE
   THE PRESENCE OF ONLY 10-20 KT OF FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS LIMITING
   DEEP SHEAR. THE ELY COMPONENT OF THIS FLOW WILL HAVE A TENDENCY OF
   SUPPORTING THE WWD SPREAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION IN CNTRL GA
   TOWARD/INTO ERN AL...WHILE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS N GA TEMPORARILY
   EXHIBITS SOME SWD COMPONENT OF MOTION OWING TO LIGHT MID-LEVEL NLYS
   ON THE ERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OVERALL SVR RISK
   SHOULD LESSEN TOWARD/AFTER DUSK AS STABILIZATION INCREASES OWING TO
   NOCTURNAL COOLING AND ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE PROCESSING OF THE STRONG
   BUOYANCY.

   ..COHEN.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31728628 34508542 34508260 31718358 31728628 

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Page last modified: June 24, 2015
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