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Mesoscale Discussion 1160
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242206Z - 250030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS
   PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS SPREADING NWWD FROM THE NW
   SIDE OF THE JACKSON MS METRO...AND ANOTHER IS ADVANCING SWD FROM THE
   GREENVILLE-GREENWOOD AREA. THESE CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY MERGE NEAR THE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER N OF INTERSTATE 20...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   POTENTIALLY SPREADING WWD INTO NERN LA/FAR SERN AR AS FACILITATED BY
   10-20 KT OF MID-LEVEL ELY FLOW. HIGH THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER -- AIDED BY SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS
   IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S -- IS FOSTERING MLCAPE AROUND 3000-4000
   J/KG. INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENSUE...ESPECIALLY AS
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MERGE. PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES PER GPS DATA
   INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER LOADING TO SUPPORT STRONG
   DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP
   SHEAR LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SVR RISK.
   REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TSTMS
   SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET OWING TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
   AND ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE PROCESSING OF THE STRONG BUOYANCY.

   ..COHEN/KERR.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32249053 31769151 31959256 32419277 32929239 33289126
               33079004 32748997 32249053 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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