Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1160
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1160 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...NE CO...NEB PANHANDLE...SWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 262007Z - 262100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS SE WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH A MORE ISOLATED
   THREAT INTO NE CO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S THIS
   AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM SE WY INTO NE CO. 19Z
   MESOANALYSIS STILL INDICATED WEAK CAPPING ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE
   ENOUGH THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN THE VICINITY OF
   THE DRYLINE/LEE SFC TROUGH AND/OR MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEST
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WEAKENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SOUTHWARD
   EXTENT INTO CO /LESS THAN 25 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ SHOULD LIMIT
   STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION. BUT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /A0A
   2500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...A THREAT OF HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
   AND BE SUSTAINED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER SE WY...EXTREME NE CO INTO THE NEB
   PANHANDLE WHERE BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS ON THE
   PERIPHERY OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FORCING FOCUSED FURTHER TO
   THE NORTH OVER NW WY. HERE...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A
   NEWD PROGRESSING CLUSTER/BOWING SEGMENT INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER
   SOUTH ACROSS CO...WEAKER SHEAR/FORCING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND THE
   OVERALL THREAT.

   ..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 06/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   40810624 41760674 42840663 43540648 44130533 44590403
               44720331 44490274 44090250 41730230 41050217 40270204
               39620202 39000211 38650250 38510317 38570419 38880489
               40090572 40810624 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 26, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities