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Mesoscale Discussion 1161
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0527 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262227Z - 270100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...SEA-BREEZE-ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
   REGENERATE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE
   EARLIER STRONG INSOLATION AMIDST UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS
   HAS SUPPORTED 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. VIS IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR
   DATA SUGGEST THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY LYING N OF
   A TAMPA-ORLANDO LINE WHERE COLD POOLS ARE AMALGAMATING...WITH MORE
   ISOLATED STORMS BLOSSOMING ALONG CLOUD-LINE-MANIFESTED CONVERGENCE
   ZONES FARTHER S. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SEWD/SWD...AIDED BY 20-25 KT OF FLOW IN THE
   3-6-KM-AGL LAYER SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS. MODEST DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO FOSTER SUSTAINED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
   WITH ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...WITH THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA
   MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCING THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL MINIMIZE THE REMAINING
   DURATION OF THIS RISK...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR SHOULD
   ALSO LIMIT THE DMGG-WIND RISK.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29358139 27158052 25998087 26118161 27408225 28988228
               29858204 29358139 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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