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Mesoscale Discussion 1161
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242229Z - 250100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   AFFECT PORTIONS OF SERN ARIZONA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED
   SVR WIND GUST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...GPS DATA HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCEMENT IN TROPOSPHERIC
   MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH PW VALUES
   REACHING AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF ARIZONA. DIURNAL
   HEATING HAS FACILITATED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN FOSTERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
   MODERATE-BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT. ONE PROMINENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS
   EVOLVED FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH
   ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMING NOTABLY MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT
   ADVANCES SWD. NEVERTHELESS...THE CONVECTIVE-CLUSTER-DEPOSITED COLD
   POOL WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SWD...WITH ASCENT AT ITS LEADING EDGE
   MAINTAINING SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS GRAHAM
   AND COCHISE COUNTIES...AND ERN PARTS OF PINAL AND PIMA COUNTIES.
   PRECEDING THIS ACTIVITY...OTHER TERRAIN-ENHANCED CONVECTION
   CONTINUES SWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

   WHERE CONVECTIVE PROCESSING HAS NOT BEEN ABUNDANT...DEEP PBL MIXING
   ASSOCIATED WITH DCAPE AROUND 1300-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK
   FOR AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST -- AS OBSERVED EARLIER AT SHOW LOW AZ.
   HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH THE
   PAUCITY OF MAINTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS...SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY MINIMIZE THE OVERALL SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/KERR.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...

   LAT...LON   31421080 32081090 33131058 32930927 32000909 31380941
               31421080 

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