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Mesoscale Discussion 1162
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 242258Z - 250100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP FROM INITIALLY ELEVATED
   TSTMS FORMING OVER W-CNTRL IA WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BECOMING
   SURFACE-BASED DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE
   HAZARDS.

   DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
   FORMED ACROSS W-CNTRL IA IN THE WAKE OF DECAYING ELEVATED CONVECTION
   OVER S-CNTRL IA. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THIS
   RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THIS CONVECTION
   CAN BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE SURFACE WARM
   FRONT DISPLACED SWWD OVER SWRN IA INTO N-CNTRL MO. BUT AS THE LLJ
   STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY GROW
   UPSCALE BETWEEN 00-04Z ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG EML
   SAMPLED IN THE 20Z OAX RAOB. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...LOW/DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42489584 42419496 42129405 41489314 40949325 40849356
               40969431 41709531 41919601 42189604 42489584 

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