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Mesoscale Discussion 1162
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1162
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern Idaho...central and western Wyoming...and
   southern Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271921Z - 272045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue/develop across portions of
   eastern Idaho, central and western Wyoming, and southern Montana
   through the afternoon. These thunderstorms will move east. Small
   hail, potentially up to an inch, and gusty thunderstorm winds will
   be the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms ongoing/developing across eastern Idaho
   and western Wyoming and will move east into a slowly increasingly
   unstable environment. Additional thunderstorms should develop ahead
   of the previously mentioned ongoing thunderstorms. 

   These thunderstorms will continue to develop within a large-scale
   environment characterized by deep-layer shear (on the order of 40
   knots) and steepening mid-level lapse rates (to between 7-8 C/km).
   Despite the steepening mid-level lapse rates, modest low-level
   moisture (surface dew points in the mid-30s to mid-40s F) and
   surface temperatures only in the 70s and 80s F have contributed to
   modest most-unstable CAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg. 

   The presence of large temperature-dew point spreads may support
   strong, gusty thunderstorm outflow that could be capable of isolated
   wind damage. Additionally, the modest CAPE and sufficient deep-layer
   shear may support an isolated large-hail threat with the strongest
   thunderstorm cores. The anticipated lack of thunderstorm
   organization and limited nature of the threat, should preclude the
   need for a watch.

   ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45800980 45320708 43590601 41850751 41630915 41701079
               42021167 43541405 44791388 45301310 45800980 

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