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Mesoscale Discussion 1162
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0615 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MT AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WY TO WESTERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357...

   VALID 262315Z - 270045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL CONTINUES
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MT AND NORTHEAST WY...IN
   ADDITION TO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WY/SOUTH-CENTRAL MT. SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. A SEVERE RISK MAY SPREAD
   INTO WESTERN ND THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING...SUCH THAN AN ADDITIONAL
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE /40 PERCENT CHANCE/.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A DEEPENING SURFACE
   LOW ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WY/FAR SOUTHEAST MT...WITH A
   NORTHWARD-EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MT AND A
   SHARPENING WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING GENERALLY
   NORTHEAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ND. COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE
   OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...AND NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
   LOW/TROUGH...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/EASTERN MT. NEAR/EAST OF
   THESE STORMS...A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
   2000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT/FAR EASTERN WY INTO THE
   WESTERN SD/SOUTHWEST ND. 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND SOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INCREASING WARM
   ADVECTION THIS EVENING MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN STORMS EASTWARD INTO THE
   WESTERN DAKOTAS.

   FARTHER WEST...AN ADDITIONAL/SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF STORMS MAY
   INCREASE AND POSE A RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL MT/CENTRAL WY. A 54 WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT
   RIVERTON WY AS OF 2238Z.

   ..GUYER.. 06/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   47860806 48680748 48090406 47540264 46100230 45920394
               43620441 43190714 42750803 46060974 47860806 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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