MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN OK...SERN KS...SW MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 162151Z - 162315Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STILL SEEMS STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL PLAINS...EVEN NEAR THE CREST OF THE BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF
   THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA.  HOWEVER...A SUBTLE IMPULSE
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE FLOW MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   TURNING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...IN
   THE WAKE OF MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH
   THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
   
   IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING...COUPLED WITH THE
   APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...IN
   THE PRESENCE OF GENERAL LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY WEAKEN
   INHIBITION ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO 00Z.  IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS PROBABLY WILL
   REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT THEY COULD
   RAPIDLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  BEST CHANCE FOR
   THIS SEEMS TO BE NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF BARTLESVILLE...BUT
   SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
   NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 02-03Z...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
   FOCUSES LIFT A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH....ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
   INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/16/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   36679890 37959719 38669527 38769368 38239206 37029278
               36649380 36439497 36319606 36169843 36679890