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Mesoscale Discussion 1163
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MD 1163 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern WY...Western SD...NE Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272004Z - 272230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increase in storm
   coverage. Watch issuance is possible later this afternoon, with a
   primary threat of large hail and damaging wind.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified across
   southeast WY, with cumulus development noted further north near DGW,
   and additional storm development noted upstream across
   central/western WY. The environment across the MCD area is
   characterized by a very warm/well-mixed boundary layer and very
   steep midlevel lapse rates. Moisture is rather sparse across
   portions of eastern WY and increases further east into the NE
   Panhandle into western SD, resulting in a range in SBCAPE of
   500-2000 J/kg from west to east. Moderate westerly flow in advance
   of a compact vort max moving into western/central WY is resulting in
   effective shear of 30-40 kt, which will support the potential for
   organization with the strongest updrafts. 

   Some uncertainty remains in the short term regarding storm coverage,
   given some remnant SBCINH across the central and eastern portions of
   the MCD area. However, continued heating will weaken the cap
   strength with time, and some severe threat will likely persist with
   the cells moving into the NE Panhandle. With time, with the approach
   of the vort max from the west, convective coverage is expected to
   increase, with a mixed mode of discrete rotating cells and
   larger-scale line segments possible. Steep midlevel lapse rates will
   favor a hail risk with any discrete cells, while some damaging wind
   threat will evolve with time as cold pools begin to consolidate.
   Watch issuance is possible sometime later this afternoon to cover
   these threats, though the timing of any watch remains uncertain.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/27/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41060493 41470550 42080596 43910598 44890444 44870279
               44800268 43830208 42190204 41050216 41060493 

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