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Mesoscale Discussion 1163
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0713 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL WY TO SWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 250013Z - 250215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. CONVECTION MAY REMAIN TOO
   ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF SPLITTING CELLS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
   NATRONA/CONVERSE COUNTY LINE IN E-CNTRL WY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PER INTERPOLATED 00Z
   RAP RAOB/CYS VWP DATA. WITH LOW-LEVEL E/NELYS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
   EVENING AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUBTLY ENHANCED BY WEAK 700 MB
   FRONTOGENESIS...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS FROM E-CNTRL WY TOWARDS THE BLACK HILLS. ALTHOUGH
   MODEL FORECASTS LARGELY APPEAR OVERDONE WITH THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY
   RELATED TO GREATER MEAN MIXING RATIOS THAN OBSERVED IN 00Z RAP
   RAOB...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD
   SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43040616 43740577 44160485 44390338 44340276 43950250
               43590257 43160300 42700369 42320493 42330554 42540605
               43040616 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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