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Mesoscale Discussion 1164
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1164
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast CO...Southwest NE...Western KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272048Z - 272245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible into early
   evening, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind.
   Watch issuance is possible if it appears that multiple severe storms
   are imminent.

   DISCUSSION...A strong/potentially severe thunderstorm has recently
   developed across eastern CO and is currently moving into Yuma
   County. Strong heating within a modestly moist boundary layer has
   allowed for moderate instability to develop, with MLCAPE of
   1000-2000 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalysis. While this area is
   further removed from the stronger flow associated with the vort max
   moving across WY, backed southeasterly flow at the surface veering
   to westerly aloft is resulting in effective shear of 30-40 kt and
   effective SRH of 150-300 m2/s2, sufficient for isolated supercell
   development with the strongest updrafts, especially across northwest
   KS into southwest NE. 

   Steep midlevel lapse rates will support large hail with any rotating
   cells, while some damaging wind threat will exist given very steep
   midlevel lapse rates and large temperature/dewpoint spreads.
   Coverage is uncertain across the MCD area given that the strongest
   large-scale forcing will remain to the north, but watch issuance is
   possible later this afternoon if multiple severe storms appear
   imminent.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/27/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39610361 39920370 40240390 40530377 40860350 40840202
               40210083 39410075 38380117 38200200 38600298 38960330
               39290339 39610361 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2017
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