|Mesoscale Discussion 1164|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017
Areas affected...Northeast CO...Southwest NE...Western KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 272048Z - 272245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible into early
evening, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind.
Watch issuance is possible if it appears that multiple severe storms
DISCUSSION...A strong/potentially severe thunderstorm has recently
developed across eastern CO and is currently moving into Yuma
County. Strong heating within a modestly moist boundary layer has
allowed for moderate instability to develop, with MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalysis. While this area is
further removed from the stronger flow associated with the vort max
moving across WY, backed southeasterly flow at the surface veering
to westerly aloft is resulting in effective shear of 30-40 kt and
effective SRH of 150-300 m2/s2, sufficient for isolated supercell
development with the strongest updrafts, especially across northwest
KS into southwest NE.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will support large hail with any rotating
cells, while some damaging wind threat will exist given very steep
midlevel lapse rates and large temperature/dewpoint spreads.
Coverage is uncertain across the MCD area given that the strongest
large-scale forcing will remain to the north, but watch issuance is
possible later this afternoon if multiple severe storms appear
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39610361 39920370 40240390 40530377 40860350 40840202
40210083 39410075 38380117 38200200 38600298 38960330
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