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Mesoscale Discussion 1164
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX
   PANHANDLES...NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 262350Z - 270215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   THIS MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...FOCUSED MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE AT THE INTERSECTION OF A
   DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM 997-MB SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED 35 SSE
   PUB AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/ESE OF THE LOW IS COLLOCATED
   WITH INCREASINGLY AGITATED CUMULUS IN SERN CO PER VIS IMAGERY.
   EARLIER CONVECTIVE PROCESSING TO THE W OF A SECONDARY DRYLINE
   /ANALYZED AROUND 60-80 MILES TO THE E OF THE FIRSTLY MENTIONED
   DRYLINE/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING WWD TO THE
   AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE N OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS INCREASED AROUND 10F IN AN HOUR FOLLOWING
   THE WWD FLUX OF CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED AIR AT LA JUNTA AND LAMAR.
   WITH THIS MOISTURE BACKING WWD OVER ANTECEDENT NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC
   SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES...AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY EXISTS E OF THE
   WRN DRYLINE. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITHIN THIS 
   REGIME -- MOST LIKELY NEAR/E OF THE SFC CYCLONE -- AS LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT INCREASES FROM THE W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH DCAPE --
   I.E. 1500-2000 J/KG -- WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH SVR WIND
   GUSTS POSSIBLE...AND SVR HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR GIVEN 35-50 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AMIDST STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGH
   LCLS WILL MITIGATE THE TORNADO RISK DESPITE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR/VERTICAL VORTICITY INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

   IF CONGEALING COLD POOLS WERE TO BREED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
   SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF SVR-WIND RISK...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW MAY
   BECOME NECESSARY. THIS COULD BE ENCOURAGED BY THE STRENGTHENING OF A
   LLJ OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE --
   ESPECIALLY W OF THE SECONDARY/ERN DRYLINE -- MAY MITIGATE SUCH
   POTENTIAL. ALSO...WITH UPCOMING NOCTURNAL COOLING DEPLETING
   SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...AND EVEN STRONGER DCVA LAGGING TO THE W...THERE
   ARE MULTIPLE FACTORS LIMITING THE OVERALL SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36630368 37630396 38390388 38500302 38100183 37260094
               36290089 35940177 36140309 36630368 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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