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Mesoscale Discussion 1165
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0835 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 250135Z - 250330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED MARGINAL SEVERE RISK COULD PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
   HOURS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SMALL DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORMED ALONG A
   WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER W-CNTRL ND MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR
   LOCALIZED SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. 00Z BIS RAOB SAMPLED MINIMAL
   MLCAPE WITH WEAK TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES RELATIVE TO THE SCANT
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. AS THE SURFACE COOLS AND CONSEQUENT SBCAPE
   DIMINISHES...CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
   SUNSET GIVEN A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47250217 47420173 47160114 46790099 46570101 46290128
               46230160 46310215 46570244 46890242 47250217 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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