|Mesoscale Discussion 1165|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017
Areas affected...central SD into portions of northeast and southeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 280002Z - 280130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will move into the area from the
west-southwest during the evening. Severe gusts 50-65 kt are
possible with the strongest gusts near the MO river.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a band of storms over southwest SD
and into the NE Sandhills moving east-northeast at 45-50 kt. The
discussion area is downstream of an approaching mid- to upper-level
shortwave trough moving across WY and into western SD and the NE
Panhandle later this evening. A warm boundary layer with
temperatures ranging from around 90 degrees F near the MO river to
around 80 F from ABR south through HON. A moist axis extends from
south to north across central NE into central SD with surface
dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
An intensification of a southerly LLJ is forecast this evening with
the ongoing band likely interacting favorably on the nose of the
LLJ. Yet, forecast soundings indicate the capping inversion is more
pronounced with east extent which may act as a limiting factor.
Anticipating the thunderstorm band to continue east across SD this
evening. Scattered severe gusts are possible with the stronger
cores/downdrafts in the band. The severe threat will likely move
out of the east side of severe watch 372 by 02-03Z.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 45030119 45559979 45589808 42839800 43059858 43099952
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