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Mesoscale Discussion 1165
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1165
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0702 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

   Areas affected...central SD into portions of northeast and southeast
   SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 280002Z - 280130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will move into the area from the
   west-southwest during the evening.  Severe gusts 50-65 kt are
   possible with the strongest gusts near the MO river.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a band of storms over southwest SD
   and into the NE Sandhills moving east-northeast at 45-50 kt.  The
   discussion area is downstream of an approaching mid- to upper-level
   shortwave trough moving across WY and into western SD and the NE
   Panhandle later this evening.  A warm boundary layer with
   temperatures ranging from around 90 degrees F near the MO river to
   around 80 F from ABR south through HON.  A moist axis extends from
   south to north across central NE into central SD with surface
   dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.  

   An intensification of a southerly LLJ is forecast this evening with
   the ongoing band likely interacting favorably on the nose of the
   LLJ.  Yet, forecast soundings indicate the capping inversion is more
   pronounced with east extent which may act as a limiting factor. 
   Anticipating the thunderstorm band to continue east across SD this
   evening.  Scattered severe gusts are possible with the stronger
   cores/downdrafts in the band.  The severe threat will likely move
   out of the east side of severe watch 372 by 02-03Z.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 06/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45030119 45559979 45589808 42839800 43059858 43099952
               43960099 45030119 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2017
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