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Mesoscale Discussion 1165
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0900 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST CO/FAR NORTHWEST KS AND
   WEST/SOUTHWEST NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 270200Z - 270330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL RISK WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST NEB
   THIS EVENING. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE/EXTENSIVENESS OF THE SEVERE RISK
   IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SMALL LINEAR SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO AS OF
   0145Z. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHEAST CO CLUSTER...A 52 KT WIND
   GUST WAS MEASURED IN FORT MORGAN CO JUST PRIOR TO 01Z...WITH A 44 KT
   MEASURED GUST AT AKRON CO AT 0106Z. THE DOWNSTREAM/INFLOW AIR MASS
   TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM/UNSTABLE WITH MODEST
   CINH AND MLCAPE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 2000+ J/KG BASED ON REGIONAL 00Z
   OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. REGIONAL DERIVED WIND
   DATA /SUCH AS GOODLAND WSR-88D VWP/ REFLECT AN INCREASING
   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
   ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/STORM RELATIVE INFLOW CONTRIBUTING TO AN
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PERSISTENCE OF STRONGER-CALIBER STORMS THIS
   EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE EVENING...AND A NEW SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE PENDING INCREASING
   ORGANIZATIONAL/INTENSITY TRENDS.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41190403 42800327 42560144 39610134 39730279 41000251
               41190403 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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