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Mesoscale Discussion 1167
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1167
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

   Areas affected...eastern NE and western IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 280433Z - 280530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A local watch extension-in-area could be utilized to
   address some remaining risk for severe gusts in the eastern
   NE/western IA region but the overall severe risk appears to be
   decreasing.  A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely not be
   issued to the east of severe thunderstorm watch 374.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 0430Z shows a mature squall line from
   Antelope county south-southwestward into Kearney county with east
   movement of the line of 35-40 kt.  Grand Island recently
   observed/measured a gust of 54 kt at 0421Z.  The 00Z OAX raob showed
   a 7.9 degrees C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate and the KOAX VAD shows 50+
   kt southerly flow in the 925-850 mb layer as of 0430,Z with a strong
   LLJ.  However, despite the eastward migration of a shortwave trough
   into the middle MO Valley late tonight, the 00Z OAX raob exhibited
   large MLCINH with over -200 J/kg noted.  While strong/localized
   severe gusts may continue east of the eastern edge of the severe
   thunderstorm watch, the severe risk may lessen as the squall line
   moves into an environment less supportive for intense downdrafts to
   reach the surface.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 06/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42229664 42239528 40409519 40489685 42229664 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2017
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