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Mesoscale Discussion 1167
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA...W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350...

   VALID 250423Z - 250630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD MAINLY BE PRESENT WITH A SEWD-MOVING
   BOWING STRUCTURE NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER THAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
   W-CNTRL IL.

   DISCUSSION...A BOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER MCS OVER MAINLY IA HAS
   SHIFTED INTO WW 350 ACROSS FAR SERN IA/NERN MO. CURRENT FORWARD
   SPEED OF 30-35 KT WOULD RESULT IN THIS BOW REACHING THE SERN EDGE IN
   W-CNTRL IL BETWEEN 07-08Z...BUT IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL
   SEWD-ACCELERATION MAY OCCUR. OVERALL SCENARIO DISCUSSED WITHIN MCD
   1166 REMAINS ON-TRACK WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY CONTINUING ALONG THE
   EDGE OF THE MLCAPE GRADIENT THAT LIES NE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONT NEAR KCDJ TO KSTL. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

   A MORE LIMITED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED WITH NRN EXTENT IN E-CNTRL
   IA/NWRN IL GIVEN THE STABILIZED/PREVIOUSLY OVERTURNED AIR MASS
   SAMPLED EARLIER IN THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND PROBABLE RECOVERY TO ONLY
   WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41169197 41259153 41169119 40939055 40478985 40228963
               39908965 39658979 39399003 39139062 39119119 39139168
               39289199 39639258 40089310 40319319 40549321 40689287
               40479218 40929200 41169197 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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