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Mesoscale Discussion 1168
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1168
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

   Areas affected...Southern MT...Central/eastern ID...Northern
   WY...Far northern UT/northeast NV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281839Z - 282115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters capable of isolated hail and strong
   wind gusts will continue into this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has recently increased across
   portions of southern MT, eastern ID, and western WY, in conjunction
   with a low-amplitude upper trough moving through the interior
   Northwest. As heating continues this afternoon in an environment
   characterized by relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates and
   effective shear of 25-35 kt, thunderstorm coverage is expected to
   increase, with some weakly rotating cells or organized clusters

   The strong thunderstorm cluster over currently over the Wind River
   Range in western WY will likely pose some threat of marginally
   severe hail and strong wind in the short term, with wind threat
   potentially extending further east into lower elevations if a
   sufficiently strong cold pool can become established. Additional
   redevelopment is likely over eastern ID/southwest MT and also across
   far northeast NV/northern UT, with eastward-moving clusters
   resulting in a similar risk of isolated hail/strong wind gusts. In
   general, the magnitude of the threat is expected to remain too low
   for watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/28/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41801277 41561453 43301477 45011483 45651408 46171137
               46130834 45610583 44710523 43620525 42560684 42400847
               42251013 42061121 41801277 

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