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Mesoscale Discussion 1168
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY / SWRN SD / NWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 250657Z - 250830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH THE INTENSIFYING STORMS
   ACROSS THE REGION.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 1.5 HOURS FROM SOUTH OF SHR INTO SWRN SD
   BETWEEN RAP AND CDR WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS AS OF 645Z OVER SRN
   CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES IN NERN WY. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE
   UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
   MORNING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE
   PRESENCE OF A WEAK FRONT AROUND 850 MB ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
   DEVELOPMENT.  CURRENT RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
   AIR MASS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THESE STORMS REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  OF POTENTIALLY
   GREATER IMPORTANCE TO UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY IS THE
   PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /EVEN FOR SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED STORMS/ WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES WITH
   A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

   THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE DURATION OF THESE STORMS EARLY
   THIS MORNING.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT IN THE TREATMENT OF
   THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WITH A MUCH MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
   LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM WRN
   THROUGH CNTRL MT.  HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CURRENT STORMS CONTINUE TO
   INTENSIFY...A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

   ..MEAD.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43770604 44050590 44260446 43910300 43560159 42880129
               42360180 42180283 42520407 42780484 43010537 43240590
               43770604 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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