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Mesoscale Discussion 1168
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS...SCNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359...

   VALID 270637Z - 270700Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
   TWO ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND NW KS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE THREAT...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO SW NEB. A SHORT BOWING
   LINE SEGMENT IS LOCATED ON THE NRN END OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
   AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF A 45 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE
   INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE
   FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE MODIFIED NORTH PLATTE 00Z SOUNDING
   SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY SFC-BASED. AS THE
   LINE MOVES ENEWD...THIS TREND FOR THE CONVECTION TO BECOME ELEVATED
   SHOULD MAKE THE SEVERE THREAT MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME.
   STILL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS MAY
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
   TWO.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS/SMITH.. 06/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39699955 39360067 39500139 40030159 40890130 41570101
               41629982 41009906 40559898 39699955 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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