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Mesoscale Discussion 1169
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271551Z - 271645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO COULD
   ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
   WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER IN
   FAR SOUTHWEST LA LATE THIS MORNING ALONG A W-E ORIENTED SFC
   BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH /NOTED IN LATEST WV IMAGERY/ TRACKING EWD ACROSS SRN TX AND
   THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 12Z RAOB FROM LCH SHOWED A VERTICALLY
   VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WITH 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 250 M2/S2 IN A
   TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS NEAR 14 G/KG AND SBCAPE
   AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE N/NE ACROSS
   SRN/SERN LA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD.
   GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND MOISTURE PROFILES...A
   TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
   THE SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND SOME DRIER
   AIR AROUND 850-700 MB COUPLED WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES COULD
   LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS WELL. GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. A WATCH IS
   NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30179386 30569336 30829264 30889185 30799113 30479039
               30209009 30069006 29738979 29428962 29198966 29068993
               28999061 29249152 29459256 29589346 29769382 29929385
               30179386 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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