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Mesoscale Discussion 1169
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL MO/CENTRAL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350...

   VALID 250702Z - 250900Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG...AND MAINLY SUB-SEVERE...WIND GUSTS REMAIN
   POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IL...WITH THE LEADING
   LINE OF STORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
   SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MO /INCLUDING THE STL METRO/ AND CENTRAL
   IL BETWEEN 08-10Z...WITH MAINLY SUB-SEVERE GUSTS AS WELL.

   A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO THE SE AND S OF WW 350.

   DISCUSSION...AT 07Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS TRACKING TO THE S/SE ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND
   WEST-CENTRAL IL...WITH ACTIVITY MAINTAINING SIMILAR MOTION OVERNIGHT
   AS IT MOVES ALONG A NW-S/SE ORIENTED INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING
   INTO EAST-CENTRAL MO AND CENTRAL IL.  TRENDS IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY INDICATED A LLJ HAS
   VEERED TO WSWLY WITH A SPEED OF 35-45 KT.  THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO
   FEED MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO THE SWRN AND WRN EXTENT OF THE MCS
   OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN
   IA INTO NERN AND EVENTUALLY EAST-CENTRAL MO.  DESPITE THE
   EXPECTATION THAT THIS MCS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...FORWARD SPEED HAS
   DECREASED WITH THE NERN MO PORTION MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
   20-25...WHILE THE PORTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL WAS TRACKING TO THE
   SOUTHEAST AT 30-35 KT.  AT THESE SPEEDS...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

   ..PETERS.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39249206 39649233 39859233 40069230 39929162 40159111
               40449055 40759018 40958987 40818929 40348880 39908880
               39278926 38938992 38749059 38769142 39189200 39249206 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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