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Mesoscale Discussion 1170
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1170
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of east central and southeast Minnesota into
   western/central Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281949Z - 282145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify across
   the region through late afternoon, accompanied by increasing severe
   weather potential as early as the 4-5 PM CDT time frame.  A watch
   issuance seems probable within the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Within the warm sector of a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone
   now migrating across central Minnesota, insolation and low-level
   moistening beneath modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are
   contributing to considerable boundary layer destabilization.  Mixed
   layer CAPE now appears on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, along and
   south of a warm frontal zone extending east southeast of the low
   center, and objective analysis suggests that mid-level inhibition is
   in the process of becoming increasingly negligible.

   Aided by forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level cyclonic
   vorticity center, progressing through larger-scale upper troughing
   now shifting across the upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest,
   thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase across the region
   through late afternoon.  Initial attempts at this may already be
   underway near/southeast of the Minneapolis area.  Activity seems
   likely to generally focus and propagate along the warm frontal zone,
   and may include discrete supercells before possibly growing upscale
   into an organizing convective system, in the presence of strong deep
   layer shear.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45929211 45568954 44538940 43579118 43819304 44839393
               45929211 

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