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Mesoscale Discussion 1170
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SE WY...WRN NEB...FAR NW KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 271805Z - 272000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS ACROSS SE WY AND NE CO...AND TRACK E/NE TOWARD WRN NEB AND NW
   KS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT...A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO IS
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CO INTO SW NEB AND NW KS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   FROM SE WY INTO CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EJECTS E/NE
   INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
   TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES. 17Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED ONLY WEAK CINH REMAINING FROM NE
   CO/SE WY INTO WRN NEB...WHERE COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE
   RESULTED IN STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /GREATER THAN 7.5 DEG C
   PER KM/. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL ERODE REMAINING CAP AND MLCAPE
   VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. 

   WHILE SOME STORMS MAY MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND BE MAINTAINED INTO
   THE HIGH PLAINS GIVEN ADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG A
   GENERALLY W-E ORIENTED REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NRN/CENTRAL CO
   INTO E-CENTRAL CO AND NW KS...AND ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWD
   FROM SE CO SFC LOW INTO ERN WY/WRN NEB. STORMS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN
   SEMI-DISCRETE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AS THEY TRACK
   E/NE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A
   TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CO INTO FAR
   NW KS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 20Z.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41950257 42410312 42540364 42590409 42500451 42240498
               41430506 39880465 39360446 38970410 38690329 38580225
               38720178 39210147 40410175 41130199 41950257 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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