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Mesoscale Discussion 1170
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN INDIANA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND
   PART OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251226Z - 251430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND GENERALLY
   SUB-SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TWO LINES OF STORMS MOVE TO THE
   SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OHIO INTO
   PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.  GIVEN THE
   EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF A SEVERE WIND THREAT AND SHORT DURATION
   /THROUGH ABOUT 15Z/...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1210Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS MOVING TO
   THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH ONE LINE EXTENDING
   FROM KNOX COUNTY TO MORGAN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...WHILE A SECOND
   SHORTER LINE EXTENDED FROM JENNINGS COUNTY TO RIPLEY AND FRANKLIN
   COUNTIES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLOUD TOP COOLING WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE GOES-R OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT INDICATED A
   FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
   HALF OF INDIANA.  A 35-45 KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MO
   VALLEY INTO THE WRN/SWRN PORTION OF THE SRN INDIANA TSTM COMPLEX
   WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY UNTIL ABOUT
   15Z AND SUSTAIN SOME STRONGER CORES INTO FAR SOUTHERN IND AND
   ADJACENT NORTHERN KY.  THEREAFTER...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
   THROUGH 18Z...SUGGESTING THESE TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. 
   GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
   SOMEWHAT SHORT DURATION OF A SEVERE THREAT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   38598725 39298582 39268506 39228465 38908434 38108362
               37738397 37638490 37528561 37518623 37778663 38128702
               38598725 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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