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Mesoscale Discussion 1171
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271854Z - 272115Z

   CORRECTED FOR LINE TYPE

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
   FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ALONG A SEA BREEZE ACROSS
   EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH THE STRONGEST NEAR
   CHESTERFIELD/KERSHAW/LANCASTER COUNTIES.

   THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   /AT OR BELOW 30 KNOTS/. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
   SUPPORT STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE
   MODEST/WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ACT TO LIMIT
   WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. THE STRONGEST
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE...BUT THE BRIEF/LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   ..MARSH/WEISS.. 06/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35638108 36577866 36537593 35607544 35227554 34467642
               33777794 33477946 33718058 34088132 34938160 35638108 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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