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Mesoscale Discussion 1172
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...PORTIONS OF FAR NE MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271930Z - 272030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER
   OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ACROSS ERN
   IA/FAR NE MO THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIFTS NEWD TOWARD
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   /SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/ WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   PRESENT WITH EWD EXTENT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PW VALUES AOA 1.5
   INCHES...COUPLED WITH SOME DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER /PER NAM
   AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ WILL FAVOR OCCASIONALLY STRONG/LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK 0-6
   KM BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT LONGEVITY OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND OVERALL
   STORM ORGANIZATION...AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   42029314 42879226 42929166 42779107 42339051 41949034
               41499064 40819114 40399192 40259280 40259361 40429398
               40749403 41509370 42029314 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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