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Mesoscale Discussion 1172
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...WRN NEB...FAR SWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251658Z - 251900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND EVENTUALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS MAINLY SERN WY AND WRN NEBRASKA
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED CELLS WITH A HISTORY OF HAIL CONTINUE SEWD
   NOW INTO ERN WY WITH OTHER CELLS FORMING ON A NEARBY OUTFLOW/FRONT
   OVER NWRN NEB. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER COOL
   AND JUDGING FROM THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING...CAPPING/CIN MAY BECOME A
   PROBLEM FOR THE ONGOING CELLS. 

   HOWEVER...HEATING WILL PERSIST...AND WITH TIME CIN WILL ERODE. IT IS
   UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE AND/OR IF
   ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BECOME DOMINANT. IN EITHER CASE...A GRADUAL
   UPWARD TREND IN STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...AND
   PERHAPS A WIND THREAT LATER TODAY IF CELLS CAN MERGE INTO A LINE AS
   SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
   STORMS ARE LIKELY WEST OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SERN WY AS WELL.

   ..JEWELL/DIAL.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43100464 43110269 43010058 42549981 42080016 41890075
               41260261 41060378 41070439 41110495 41650545 42220585
               42660586 42950551 43100464 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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