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Mesoscale Discussion 1172
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1172
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0407 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast WY...NE Panhandle...Northeast CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 282107Z - 282300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is possible into early
   evening, with the primary threat being locally severe wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A modest increase in convective coverage and intensity
   has recently been noted across southeast WY and northeast CO. With a
   belt of moderate midlevel westerly flow spreading across the area,
   effective shear will be sufficient for organized structures with any
   sustained deep convection. Instability is the primary limiting
   factor across the area, with dewpoints largely in the 30s-40s F,
   resulting in only weak SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg across the area.
   However, a few clusters may eventually evolve as outflows
   conglomerate, with a relative maximum in the threat potentially
   developing near a weak surface low over far southeast WY and the NE
   Panhandle. With deep and well-mixed boundary layers in place,
   damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard, especially
   with any upscale-growing clusters that can develop. Given the
   relatively limited magnitude of the threat, watch issuance is not
   currently anticipated.

   ..Dean/Weiss.. 06/28/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41100552 41910539 42640485 42960412 42940311 42970216
               41280205 40440243 39720288 39340314 39020358 38940410
               38920460 38930497 39150546 41100552 

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