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Mesoscale Discussion 1173
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FAR
   NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271954Z - 272200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT
   ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH AND WINDS NEAR 60 MPH
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN COVERAGE
   AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX
   CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE AIR
   MASS AHEAD OF THIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS BECOME UNSTABLE
   WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THIS
   INSTABILITY...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 6.5
   C/KG...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.
   ADDITIONALLY...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE
   WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT. THE EXCEPTION TO
   THIS WOULD BE IF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS CAN CONGEAL/ORGANIZE ON A
   MESO-BETA SCALE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
   ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED BRIEF/ISOLATED NATURE
   OF ANY SEVERE THREAT...A WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.

   ..MARSH/WEISS.. 06/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46589907 48719824 48909625 46929440 45399336 44639396
               44669537 45529724 46019821 46589907 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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