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Mesoscale Discussion 1173
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VIRGINIA...EXTREME NRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251942Z - 252115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR
   TWO. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT THIS
   EVENING AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...STORM INITIATION HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS SERN VA
   NEAR A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE
   OF 1500-2000 J/KG IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY PER
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY...WITH
   AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WHILE
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND
   PROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL
   ALSO RESULT IN A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
   THAT CAN BE MAINTAINED. 

   FURTHER WEST...CU HAS BEEN INCREASING ALONG A LEE TROUGH AS
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED VORT
   MAX CURRENTLY OVER ERN OH. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN INITIATE IN THIS AREA...WITH A
   PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. 

   TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STRONGER
   ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH AND A
   TRANSITION TO AN ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WW ISSUANCE IS
   POSSIBLE BEFORE 21Z IF CURRENT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE...WITH WW ISSUANCE BECOMING LIKELY BY THIS EVENING IN
   RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

   ..DEAN/DIAL.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36637606 36407694 36207935 36668012 37137991 38177873
               38237795 38077724 37787657 36637606 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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