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Mesoscale Discussion 1174
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN KS INTO SW NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272019Z - 272145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS SW NEB AND NW KS.
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
   GREATEST THREAT ACROSS WRN KS...BUT A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
   22-00Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
   A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER MOST OF
   THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
   80. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BETTER CU FIELD ACROSS SW NEB/NW KS
   WITH PERHAPS A FEW CU DEVELOPING IN THINNER/BROKEN CLOUDINESS
   FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD DDC IN SW KS. 18Z RAOB FROM DDC INDICATED A
   STOUT CAP STILL IN PLACE WITH A WARM NOSE OF 24 C AROUND 800 MB.
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE SOME WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE CONTINUES TO EJECT E/NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH
   ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF HEATING...CAPPING SHOULD DECREASE SOME.
   HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH GREATER SEVERE THREAT
   MAY EXTEND ACROSS WRN KS. 

   MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND DRYLINE
   COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN
   THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS NW KS INTO SW NEB.
   VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAS RESULTED IN A
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS ANY UPDRAFT THAT DEVELOPS AND BREAKS THE CAP SHOULD BE
   VERY ROBUST. ADDITIONALLY...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LEE SFC LOW WILL MAXIMIZE LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THIS AREA...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING INTO
   TONIGHT...SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO FORWARD
   PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTER/QLCS.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39910231 41390273 41980281 42080214 41810150 41090059
               40430007 39579936 39019913 38539925 37920005 37640088
               37730172 38250205 39910231 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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