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Mesoscale Discussion 1174
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN
   WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 252010Z - 252115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
   EASTERN PARTS OF THE WW AREA.  DEVELOPING STORMS AMIDST AN UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL LIKELY
   NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
   ONGOING ACROSS PRIMARILY EASTERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT THE
   CURRENT TIME.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED ATOP A STRONG
   CAPPING INVERSION BASED AT AROUND 700MB...WITH INSTABILITY DUE TO
   STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  A STORM IN SHERIDAN/BOX BUTTE
   COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT HAIL IN THE PAST HOUR.
   THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR...ALTHOUGH
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO HOW LONG THIS STORM WILL REMAIN
   SEVERE WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT. 

   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND WEST
   OF AN OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.  WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
   FLOW BENEATH 40-KNOT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGER SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SEVERE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE EMERGING THREAT...WW ISSUANCE
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 21Z.

   ..COOK/DIAL.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   41220130 40680146 39850227 39810310 40010435 40470493
               41110520 41700558 42360632 42890678 43370658 43680594
               43960518 44020446 44050370 43940303 43470212 43140186
               42570157 41950138 41390129 41220130 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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