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Mesoscale Discussion 1175
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN
   INDIANA...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252055Z - 252300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  A WW MAY BE
   NEEDED FOR THIS AREA.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
   SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND FAR EASTERN MISSOURI IN THE PAST HOUR. 
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE
   REGION...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
   DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WIND PROFILES
   ARE PRIMARILY WESTERLY WITH MINIMAL VEERING...AND 35-45 KNOT DEEP
   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS STORMS
   MATURE...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES POSSIBLE
   THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  A TORNADO CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT
   GIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SYNOPTIC-SCALE STATIONARY FRONT. 
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
   NEXT 1-3 HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME
   FRAME.

   ..COOK/DIAL.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38639093 38869134 39139165 39329173 39559174 39929170
               40139151 40189122 40099069 39989029 39858984 39678933
               39538847 39468827 39188704 39088630 38898559 38618511
               38178523 37878586 37818632 37788707 37778751 38048912
               38639093 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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