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Mesoscale Discussion 1175
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1175
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0546 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

   Areas affected...northeastern/north-central Kansas and southeastern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282246Z - 290015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Towering cumulus are developing in northeastern Kansas and
   southeastern Nebraska to the southwest of ongoing severe
   thunderstorms.  This area will continue to be monitored for
   convective initiation and the possibility of a severe thunderstorm

   DISCUSSION...Enhanced vertical development of a cumulus field
   feeding into ongoing storms across far southeastern Nebraska and
   northwestern Missouri suggests that convective initiation may occur
   over northeastern Kansas in the next hour or two.  If thunderstorms
   are able to develop, moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg)
   and sufficient deep-layer shear (30-40 knots per mesoanalysis)
   should support organized updrafts.  These storms would likely pose a
   threat of severe hail and damaging winds.  The
   westward/southwestward extent of thunderstorm initiation is
   uncertain, but if thunderstorm coverage becomes sufficient a watch
   may be necessary.

   ..Jirak/Weiss.. 06/28/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40289753 40439680 40559633 40469596 40239567 39839569
               39499624 39209663 39149693 38939759 39149841 39859858

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