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Mesoscale Discussion 1176
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX NWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272204Z - 272330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2
   HRS...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THIS
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
   DRYLINE RUNNING WEST OF A MRF-INK-PVW LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
   HEATED TO ABOVE 100F. UPPER 50S-LOW 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED
   STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...WITH SBCAPE OF
   2500-4000 J/KG IN PLACE PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONG NLY MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW...AS
   INDICATED BY SWD STREAMING ANVILS FROM INCIPIENT STORMS...IS
   RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
   AS A RESULT...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WIND AND LARGE HAIL. 

   GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...AREAS NEAR LBB AND SWD ARE LIKELY TO SEE
   DEVELOPMENT FIRST. CU IS NOT AS ROBUST AT THE MOMENT ACROSS AREAS
   FURTHER NORTH INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS
   POSSIBLE IN THESE REGIONS TOWARD EVENING AS ADDITIONAL HEATING
   WEAKENS THE CAP AND THE AREA RECEIVES A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE
   EJECTING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED SUPERCELLS...ONE OR MORE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
   1-2 HRS TO COVER THIS THREAT.

   ..DEAN/MEAD.. 06/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...

   LAT...LON   30510493 31320375 32900302 33890273 35050261 36990243
               36980044 33120062 31380124 30360175 29880195 29770195
               29880221 29760262 29270290 28950315 29600447 30510493 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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