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Mesoscale Discussion 1176
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL KS...CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252152Z - 252345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION FORMING OVER CNTRL KS MAY DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT INTO PARTS OF CNTRL MO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
   DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK WITH WRN EXTENT RENDERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
   DEGREE OF SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION...VERY LARGE BUOYANCY COULD
   SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

   DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1010 MB CYCLONE OVER
   CNTRL KS ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS EWD THROUGH THE
   KTOP/KMKC AREA INTO E-CNTRL MO OVER AUDRAIN COUNTY. INITIAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE MS RIVER IS WITHIN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY PROGRESS E OF
   THE MS RIVER WITHIN NEWLY-ISSUED WW 354. FARTHER W...AN ISOLATED CB
   HAS FORMED OVER WABAUNSEE COUNTY KS BENEATH A DRIFTING PLUME OF
   CIRROSTRATUS. ALTHOUGH THIS CIRRUS PLUME RENDERS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
   DEGREE OF CU DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT WEAK
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT SUSTAIN A FEW STORMS ALONG THE
   FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN VERY LARGE INSTABILITY. UPDRAFTS
   SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE AMIDST WEAK SHEAR /EFFECTIVE VALUES AOB
   25-KT/...BUT ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38889798 39039780 39339653 39619415 39599267 39369228
               38859244 38599281 38359384 38329563 38449768 38599799
               38889798 

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Page last modified: June 25, 2015
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