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Mesoscale Discussion 1177
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0523 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KY INTO FAR WESTERN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252223Z - 260000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A STRONG...LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS BEEN RECOVERING IN
   THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUD COVER AND
   DEWPOINTS IN TO UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HAVE NOSED INTO THE REGION
   SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. STRONG INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
   35 KT WILL SUPPORT CELLULAR STRUCTURES WHICH MAY AT TIMES EXHIBIT
   SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN STORM INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER
   HAND...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.5
   INCHES WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37308254 37068307 36898348 36758405 36738466 36798500
               37048543 37348567 37588574 37968560 38068543 38238498
               38328457 38348400 38458363 38588300 38478226 38218192
               37788183 37508201 37308254 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2015
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