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Mesoscale Discussion 1180
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1180
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1138 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast CO...Northwest KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 290438Z - 290545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible across
   northeast CO and northwest KS into the early morning hours. Hail is
   the greatest risk with this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Weak large-scale ascent is spreading across the central
   Rockies along the southern fringe of a short-wave trough digging
   across the northern inter-mountain region. Over the last hour or so
   convection has gradually increased in areal coverage/intensity along
   the Palmer Divide within favorable easterly low-level flow. This
   activity is developing within a sheared regime that is supportive of
   maintaining organized updrafts as they spread toward northwest KS.
   Latest radar data suggests severe hail is observed with the
   strongest storms and convection may increase over the next few hours
   as it encounters a strengthening LLJ over western KS. Latest HRRR
   guidance supports this scenario and there is increasing confidence
   this activity may have some longevity. Will monitor this region for
   possible WW but coverage/intensity may be inadequate for severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   ..Darrow/Weiss.. 06/29/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39410378 39810236 39810046 38770055 38730373 39410378 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2017
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