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Mesoscale Discussion 1180
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1180
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST
   NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353...

   VALID 252353Z - 260130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL VA WILL
   POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS
   TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIDEWATER/CHESAPEAKE PORTIONS OF
   EASTERN VA.

   DISCUSSION...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT STILL EXISTS ACROSS
   MUCH OF WW 353 EARLY THIS EVENING. A BELT OF STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   IS IMPINGING ON THE AREA NOW AND A NEW BAND OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION
   IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING NEAR ACROSS CENTRAL VA. HI-RES GUIDANCE
   CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THESE CELLS WILL DEVELOP
   INTO ONE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
   INTO SOUTHEAST VA. LATEST VWP DATA FROM AKQ HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
   THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO.  THIS IS
   LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO BACKING/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TIDEWATER/CHESAPEAKE
   AREA.  ANY CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE WOULD IN TURN POSE A
   GREATER TORNADO THREAT WHEN INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY/BACKED
   LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
   STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 06/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35577710 35397784 35547862 35937920 36327952 36997946
               37537934 38257866 38287744 37987617 37507598 37007578
               36257602 35937637 35577710 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2015
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