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Mesoscale Discussion 1181
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343...

   VALID 070731Z - 070900Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH A QLCS EXTENDING
   FROM SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEB TO NORTH-CENTRAL KS ALREADY
   HAS OR WILL HAVE EXITED ALL OF WW 343 BY 08Z.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED
   STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS WILL REMAIN A RISK FOR HAIL AND/OR
   LOCALLY STRONG WING GUSTS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THIS
   WATCH BEYOND 08Z.  A PORTION OF THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
   TEMPORALLY.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0715Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ALL BUT THE
   TRAILING SECTION OF THE IA/SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR NORTHERN KS QLCS HAD
   ALREADY EXITED WW 343.  ALTHOUGH THIS DATA SUGGEST THE WATCH COULD
   BE CANCELED SOON OR AS SCHEDULED AT 08Z...A FEW ELEVATED STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WW
   343 DURING THE OVERNIGHT.  THESE STORMS WILL BE FORMING NORTH OF AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
   THE AFOREMENTIONED QLCS THROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF NORTH-CENTRAL
   TO NORTHWEST KS.  WAA ATTENDANT TO A STRONG S/SWLY LLJ /50-60 KT PER
   AMA/DDC VADS/ AND AN INFLUX OF MODERATELY STRONG MUCAPE 2000-3000
   J/KG LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL /MAINLY EPISODIC/
   STORM INTENSITY INCREASES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TRENDS IN MRMS DATA
   CONFIRM THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THESE STORMS WITH MESH SUGGESTING
   HAIL AT TIMES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

   ..PETERS.. 07/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40230072 40299949 40329831 40169744 39539759 39329811
               39369895 39469952 39619999 39920029 40230072 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2016
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