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Mesoscale Discussion 1181
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 260004Z - 260130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE RISK IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN THEREAFTER AND
   MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW PROBABLE SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCING FROM CNTRL KS SWWD TO THE RATON MESA.
   WITHIN A HOT/DEEPLY-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...STEEP
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AS SAMPLED BY 00Z DDC RAOB WILL FAVORABLY
   SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK. BUT AMIDST
   MODEST DEEP SHEAR...UPDRAFTS HAVE THUS FAR APPEARED SOMEWHAT
   PULSE-LIKE AND REMAIN TIED TO THE FRONT/STORM-SCALE OUTFLOW. THE
   ONSET OF NOCTURNAL SURFACE COOLING/INCREASING MLCIN IN THE ABSENCE
   OF A ROBUST LLJ SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION DECAYING WITHIN AN HOUR
   OR SO OF SUNSET.

   ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 06/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   36770284 37270183 37890061 38689939 39169822 39139763
               38749752 38299792 37519963 36800120 36520236 36540266
               36770284 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2015
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