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Mesoscale Discussion 1182
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0949 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...NW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280249Z - 280415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0230Z...AN INTENSE STORM THAT HAD RECENTLY PRODUCED
   GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL WAS MOVING RAPIDLY INTO GRAY/WHEELER COUNTIES IN
   TX. WHILE THIS STORM IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...IT DISPLAYS
   CHARACTERISTICS OF A LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL RISK AS IT MOVES INTO WRN OK...GIVEN VERY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED IN 00Z AMA/OUN SOUNDINGS AND FAVORABLE WIND
   PROFILES BEING ENHANCED BY AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. OTHER
   GENERALLY WEAKER STORMS ARE ONGOING FURTHER SOUTH...THOUGH
   INTENSIFICATION IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG MUCAPE OF
   2500-3500 J/KG FOR PARCELS ROOTED AROUND 850 MB. 

   GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE
   THREAT THUS FAR...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL BE NECESSARY
   DOWNSTREAM OF WW 363...THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   ..DEAN/MEAD.. 06/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32889996 34229999 36759998 36959874 36739842 36509822
               35799810 34839818 33129838 32549843 32369929 32549988
               32889996 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2014
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