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Mesoscale Discussion 1183
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0427 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/NORTHERN MO/FAR SOUTHERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345...

   VALID 070927Z - 071100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A FAST-MOVING BOWING LINE OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE STORMS FROM THE APEX
   SOUTHWESTWARD CONTINUE TO MAKE A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
   NORTHERN MO AND NORTHEAST KS...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION TRACKS
   EAST ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE MO/IA BORDER.

   COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOW CAN BE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH WITH
   ITS PASSAGE...THOUGH KS COUNTIES WEST OF THE LINE OF STORMS MAY NEED
   TO BE MAINTAINED IN WW 345...GIVEN ANY ELEVATED STORMS THAT POSE A
   POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0910Z...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE BOWING
   LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF WW 345 HAD
   ACCELERATED IN FORWARD SPEED /CLOSE TO 50 KT WITH THE APEX OF THE
   LINE/.  MEANWHILE...ACCELERATIONS ALSO OCCURRED ALONG THE REST OF
   THE LINE OF STORMS...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT IN NORTHEAST KS MOVING
   TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 35-40 KT...AND THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVING EAST
   AT 40 KT ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE MO/IA BORDER AREA.  THESE CURRENT
   SPEEDS SUGGEST THE LINE OF STORMS WILL EXIT MUCH OF THIS WATCH
   BETWEEN 11-1130Z.  ONGOING AND DOWNSTREAM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR NEW WW ISSUANCE.

   ...MO/NORTHEAST KS...
   THE PORTION OF THIS BOWING LINE FROM THE APEX SOUTHWESTWARD BEGAN A
   TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE APEX MOVED THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST
   NEB...WHERE FALL CITY /FNB/ REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 59 KT AT 0813Z.
   THIS SOUTHEAST TURN IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REST OF
   THE EARLY MORNING...GIVEN A NW-SE ORIENTATION OF A MODERATELY STRONG
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED...AS
   NEEDED...TO THIS WATCH IN NORTHEAST KS AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
   LINE MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WW 345.

   ...FAR NORTHERN MO/FAR SOUTHERN IA...
   THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
   MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS THIS ACTIVITY TENDS TO DEVELOP EAST ALONG
   THE TRAILING W-E ORIENTATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ATTENDANT TO
   THE IA/SOUTHERN MN MCS.  THE CURRENT EASTWARD SPEED OF THIS LINE AT
   40 KT SUGGESTS LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A
   THREAT.

   ..PETERS.. 07/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40009782 40039698 40009555 39989512 40489486 41139482
               41159217 39249225 38659259 38519317 38439420 38479536
               38609607 38829647 39129684 39469727 40009782 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2016
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