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Mesoscale Discussion 1183
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SD...NE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362...364...

   VALID 280322Z - 280415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   362...364...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
   POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF WATCHES 362 AND 364 BUT
   OVERALL THREAT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE HAS BEEN DECREASING LATE
   THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN SD AND CNTRL NEB. EXPECT WATCHES WILL BE
   CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION IN MOST AREAS.

   DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF A WELL-FORMED AND EXTENSIVE ARC OF DEEP
   CONVECTION WAS SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
   NEB/SD BORDER AT ABOUT 45KT. THIS SYSTEM WAS BEING SUSTAINED BY
   WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED 40-50KT SPEED MAX
   EJECTING OUT OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TRAILING
   SEGMENT OF THE BOW...ACROSS SCNTRL NEB...HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
   WHILE LEADING EDGE NEARING THE NEB/SD BORDER...CONTINUES TO INGEST
   GREATER INSTABILITY AND EXHIBIT STRONGER REFLECTIVITY. GUSTS ALONG
   THIS LEADING EDGE COULD STILL TOP 50KT BUT EXPECT DOWNWARD TREND AS
   CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH
   NIGHTTIME COOLING.

   LESS ORGANIZED AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS PERSIST ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD
   IN WATCH 362. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   WILL LIKELY PERMIT THESE STORMS TO PERSIST...GENERALLY WEAK
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
   OVERNIGHT.

   ..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   40099916 40779977 41410024 41440148 44070222 45900328
               45910200 45470193 45450156 45010148 45000116 43870100
               43739964 43039952 43009782 42849754 42489750 42459782
               41909788 41569792 41499827 40989835 41079869 40719871
               40639923 40099916 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2014
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