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Mesoscale Discussion 1184
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1184
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Colorado and adjacent
   western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291905Z - 292130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storm development is possible
   within the next hour or two near the Colorado Front Range, mainly
   south of Denver.  A more appreciable severe weather threat is
   expected to subsequently evolve across and east of the Palmer Divide
   area by the 3-5 PM MDT time frame.  Although timing is still a bit
   uncertain, trends are being monitored for a severe weather watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery suggests that the leading
   edge of large-scale forcing for ascent, associated with a vigorous
   upper trough digging across the northern U.S. Rockies, is in the
   process of developing south/southeastward across the Colorado Front
   Range region.  This may be enhancing initial attempts at convective
   development across the higher terrain, in response to orographic
   forcing.  

   Highest boundary layer moisture content to the immediate lee of the
   mountains appears focused near the Palmer Divide, across the Limon
   into Colorado Springs area, where thunderstorms may be in the
   process of initating, and could pose at least some severe weather
   risk within the next couple of hours.  Aided by veering winds with
   height beneath 30+ kt westerly 500 mb flow, vertical shear is strong
   and probably sufficient for supercells.

   With time, model output appears to suggest that moistening north to
   northeasterly upslope flow will focus stronger destabilization along
   the Palmer Divide, with continued insolation this afternoon.  This
   may support a more notable increase in thunderstorm development and
   intensification by the 21-23Z time frame.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/29/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39380473 39870375 38990097 38130186 38180354 39380473 

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