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Mesoscale Discussion 1185
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0841 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281341Z - 281445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN OK THIS
   MORNING. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW LONG THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST. AREA
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
   DECAYING OVERNIGHT MCS HAS MAINTAINED NEAR-SEVERE STATUS THIS
   MORNING. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALONG A THETA-E GRADIENT
   AND W-E ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N-CNTRL OK...WHERE FAVORABLE
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG SLY LLJ HAVE
   HELPED TO SUSTAIN THIS LINE OF CONVECTION.  DOWNSTREAM VWP FROM INX
   SHOWS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE WITH BACKED SFC WINDS VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A STRONG SLY LLJ
   AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT 70S DEWPOINTS
   INTO NRN OK ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. 13Z MESOANALYSIS AND
   12Z OUN RAOB SHOWED ONLY VERY WEAK CAPPING...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY
   LIMIT SFC HEATING INITIALLY THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY
   EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS SYSTEM MAY BE MAINTAINED...AT LEAST A
   LOCAL/SHORT TERM THREAT OF STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN OK.
   ADDITIONALLY...MEAN MIXING RATION NEAR 15-16 J/KG AND FAVORABLE LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD ALLOW FOR MESOVORTEX FORMATION...FURTHER
   ENHANCING STRONG WIND OR BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36989902 37049630 36659568 35859594 35599661 35439749
               35519880 35839973 36179991 36499980 36859939 36989902 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2014
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