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Mesoscale Discussion 1185
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1185
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

   Areas affected...Central into northeast NE...Southeast
   SD...Northwest IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 291926Z - 292100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated severe thunderstorm development appears
   likely later this afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind will be
   the primary threat. Watch issuance is likely for portions of the
   area.

   DISCUSSION...Tomwering cumulus has developed along a cold front
   across portions of southwest into north-central NE. With time,
   scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front, and
   also in the vicinity of an outflow boundary running from northwest
   IA into northeast NE/southeast SD, as a midlevel vort max over
   western SD moves eastward through the afternoon. While the 18Z OAX
   sounding still exhibits the effects of the nocturnal MCS across
   KS/MO, more substantial recovery has likely occurred farther west,
   with strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates supporting
   moderate MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, while westerly midlevel flow is
   sufficient to support effective shear of 35-45 kt. 

   Initial supercell development is possible both along the front and
   the outflow boundary. Isolated instances of very large hail in
   excess of 2 inches in diameter will be possible, along with isolated
   damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two also will be possible with any
   supercells that interact with the outflow boundary across northeast
   NE/northwest IA. With time, some upscale growth is possible with an
   increasing threat of damaging wind. Watch issuance is likely later
   this afternoon to cover these threats.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/29/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40610065 41010039 41400002 42069947 42649927 43139928
               43739946 43579812 43109682 42879613 42649602 42189620
               41729679 41289760 40919839 40499924 40219960 40200005
               40310045 40610065 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2017
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