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Mesoscale Discussion 1186
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1186
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

   Areas affected...South central through eastern Kansas and adjacent
   portions of western Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 292012Z - 292245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development is possible as early as the
   5-7 PM CDT time frame, which could be accompanied by a risk for
   tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and potentially damaging wind
   gusts.  A watch probably will be needed once storm initiation become
   more certain.

   DISCUSSION...A stalled outflow boundary across portions of the
   Missouri Ozarks into southern Kansas remains a potential focus for
   rapid new thunderstorm development late this afternoon.  Strong
   heating of seasonably high boundary layer moisture content along
   this boundary, beneath fairly steep mid-level lapse rates associated
   with warm elevated mixed layer air, appears to be contributing to
   CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.  This is occurring in the
   presence of moderate to strong vertical shear associated with
   veering winds with height from lower to mid-levels, beneath a belt
   of 30-40 kt westerly 500 mb flow.  And the environment appears more
   than conducive to organized severe storm development, including
   supercells at least initially.

   Forcing to support any such development remains unclear, as the warm
   elevated mixed layer air is also contributing to substantial
   mid-level inhibition.   Near the nose of the corridor of strongest 
   surface heating emanating from the higher Plains, the latest Rapid
   Refresh indicates an area of locally enhanced low-level convergence
   near/southwest of the Wichita area, which could provide a focus for
   the initiation of storms late this afternoon.  This is near/within a
   broader zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection which
   extends northward/eastward, toward the Kansas City area and Missouri
   Ozarks.  This could also provide support for the initiation of
   storms, though this would seem most probable along the mid-level
   thermal gradient to the north of the stronger capping,
   near/southwest through southeast of the Kansas City metropolitan
   area.

   When/if storms do develop, a 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb jet may
   contribute to sufficient low-level shear to support a risk for
   tornadoes with any discrete storms.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/29/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38759818 39249567 38899403 37659408 37379650 36939805
               37369889 38759818 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2017
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