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Mesoscale Discussion 1186
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...ERN KS...WRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281626Z - 281800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   ERN KS/WRN MO INTO NE OK. STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 18Z

   DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY WARMING THIS MORNING UNDER
   BROKEN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN EWD ADVANCING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
   N/NE ACROSS NRN OK/ERN KS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID MO VALLEY.
   WHILE CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING STRONGER SFC HEATING...MID 60S TO NEAR
   70 DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J PER KG/ WITH LITTLE
   TO NO INHIBITION REMAINING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KT
   OVER KS/OK WEAKENS WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MO BUT WILL INCREASE OVER
   WRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIFTS NE THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. 

   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SE KS ALONG THE
   REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKER ECHOS ALSO DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
   INTO NE OK AND WRN MO. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH ADDITIONAL
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. ONE OR
   MORE BANDS/CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO A QLCS LATER
   TODAY ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MO...WHERE STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. ONGOING BOWING FEATURE ACROSS NW OK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   TO TRACK EWD AND MAY PRODUCE PERIODIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS INTO PARTS
   OF CENTRAL AND NE OK.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35939496 35629556 35419643 35359707 35389767 35539804
               35949797 37319731 39079629 40179601 40439549 40609477
               40579377 40249316 39749290 38909286 38209302 37529313
               36929350 36209442 35939496 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2014
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