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Mesoscale Discussion 1186
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1005 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MID-MS VALLEY TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...356...

   VALID 260305Z - 260430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   354...356...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE RISK HAS DIMINISHED...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
   SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIMES FOR WW/S 354/356. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCES
   ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS REMAIN ALONG A
   CONVECTIVELY-MODIFIED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. MUCH OF THIS
   ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY WITHIN WW 356.
   CONTINUED NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING MLCIN SUGGESTS OVERALL
   SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND SPORADIC FOR THE DURATION OF
   BOTH WW/S. THE BEST CHANCE AT A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN WITHIN WW 354 WITH AN MCV CURRENTLY CROSSING THE STL
   METRO AREA...GIVEN A RECENT STRONG WIND GUST TO 44 KT AT KCPS AT
   0253Z. BUT WITH CONVECTION REMAINING S OF A CONFINED BELT OF STRONG
   MID-LEVEL WLYS OVER NRN/CNTRL IL/IND...THIS MCV SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
   INTENSIFY INTO A SUSTAINABLE SEVERE RISK.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
   LSX...

   LAT...LON   38639005 38768959 38648905 38858797 38808627 38528467
               38268292 38158211 37868179 37528173 37228193 37058265
               37008304 37288531 37748827 37848896 37959007 38069053
               38229057 38639005 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2015
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