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Mesoscale Discussion 1187
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1187
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

   Areas affected...Northern IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292048Z - 292245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are possible into early evening, with
   a primary threat of isolated hail and strong wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed in the vicinity
   of a weak surface boundary across northern IA. While low-level
   moisture has been somewhat modified by the impact of morning
   convection to the south, strong heating has allowed moderate
   destabilization to occur, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg noted per
   recent mesoanalyses. Mid/upper-level flow and effective shear is
   weaker compared to areas further west, and convection is expected to
   remain relatively disorganized. However, sufficient instability may
   support isolated instances of hail and strong wind gusts. A brief,
   weak tornado also can't be ruled out with the strongest updrafts as
   they interact with the boundary. Overall, the severe threat is
   expected to remain too marginal for watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/29/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42799417 42889377 42909322 43009157 42749105 42349139
               42189219 42139300 42159385 42259422 42579427 42799417 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2017
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