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Mesoscale Discussion 1188
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 282021Z - 282145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE CU FIELD OVER SW OK/WRN N TX WAS BECOMING MORE
   AGITATED THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
   UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES HAS RESULTED IN STRONG INSTABILITY TO
   THE SOUTH OF THE W-E ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID OUT BY MORNING
   CONVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ACCORDANCE WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
   WOULD LEAD TO ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
   TO STRONG WINDS. SLIGHTLY RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
   SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. BUT A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE RICH
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BACKED SFC WINDS...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
   MAY EXIST AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS RIGHT ON
   THE BOUNDARY. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
   WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36139921 35949869 35639823 35009816 34369816 33989837
               33729858 33679895 33749967 33970011 34530027 35550026
               36060005 36139921 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2014
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