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Mesoscale Discussion 1189
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 282212Z - 282345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS UNTIL AROUND MID EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT
   MORE THAN ONE STORM WILL DEVELOP...A WW WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED STORM HAS INITIATED
   WITHIN AN AREA OF CUMULUS CONGESTUS THAT APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED
   WHERE THERMAL AXIS /100+ F SFC TEMPERATURES/ INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE.
   ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
   3000 J/KG MLCAPE. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE VEERING WITHIN THE
   LOWEST 3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KT SUGGESTING STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MID
   EVENING WHEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
   WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32220148 33510127 34070052 33849940 32609959 32040055
               32220148 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2014
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