MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1017 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446...
   
   VALID 180317Z - 180415Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446
   CONTINUES.
   
   THOUGH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL MAY PERSIST
   FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE-INTO NWRN OK...AN
   EXTENSION/REPLACEMENT WW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446 IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED. A LINEAR MULTICELL CLUSTER POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
   PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE IS OBSERVED MOVING ENE AT 50 KT. THE
   FAST FORWARD PROPAGATION WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SUGGESTS
   THAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER...HI RES RADAR
   IMAGERY INDICATES THE GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM COMPLEX
   IS RACING EWD AHEAD OF THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES. IN
   ADDITION...THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO A LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT HAS
   BEEN STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS ACTIVITY. THUS...THESE STORMS WILL
   LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR. ANOTHER
   MORE DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM TRAILED THE STORM CLUSTER TO THE NORTH.
   THIS STORM IS POSITIONED ROUGHLY 40 SSW OF AMA AT 310Z...AND MAY
   CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AS
   WELL AS MODIFIED AMA 00Z RAOB...SUGGEST THAT CINH WILL INCREASE
   SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE STABILIZING
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
   AN EVENTUAL DECREASE IN STORM STRENGTH/SEVERITY...THUS ADDITIONAL
   WW/S ARE NOT EXPECTED..
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/18/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   34730308 38289963 38279726 34730080 34730308