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Mesoscale Discussion 1190
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...SERN SD...SWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 282215Z - 282345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
   EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NERN NEB/SERN SD
   ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FUELED BY MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
   TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   FAVORABLE WITH SOME BACKING NOTED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND
   STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED THUS FAR.
   HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT
   OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WHILE ANY UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SHORT LINE
   SEGMENTS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. 

   GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTATION THAT STORM
   INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
   COOLING...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 06/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41009915 41829894 42879791 43919723 45019687 45169638
               45169578 43899560 43319555 42669564 42099576 41209590
               40919656 40879755 40839870 41009915 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2014
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