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Mesoscale Discussion 1190
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1190
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0837 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

   Areas affected...western/central Kansas and far northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 300137Z - 300300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over western Kansas are expected to continue
   moving eastward and eventually organize into an MCS.  The
   severe-weather hazards will include large hail and damaging winds,
   transitioning to primarily a wind threat after upscale growth
   occurs. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely needed.

   DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms moving eastward out of western
   Kansas will encounter a more unstable environment across central
   Kansas, characterized by MUCAPE values around 2500 J/kg and
   deep-layer shear around 40 knots.  As the southerly low-level jet
   increases this evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas
   Panhandle, this should support ongoing storms and new initiation
   across southwestern Kansas.  Storms will initially pose a risk of
   large hail and damaging winds.  As upscale growth occurs throughout
   the evening, damaging winds will become the primary severe-weather

   ..Jirak/Weiss.. 06/30/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37400157 38140081 39060017 39909955 40229925 39939840
               39399756 38619701 37829685 37159723 36739763 36619833
               36599869 36569949 36840082 37400157 

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