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Mesoscale Discussion 1192
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1192
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern KS and northern OK.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...

   Valid 300632Z - 300830Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383

   SUMMARY...The severe threat with a band of thunderstorms will
   continue to spread eastward/southeastward across the watch area and
   is becoming mostly wind-driven.  An additional watch may be needed
   in the next few hours farther southeast across parts of northeastern
   OK, southeastern KS, southwestern MO and/or northwestern AR as
   convective trends in watch 383 warrant.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has organized into a wavy/quasi-linear MCS
   with embedded bows and outflow surges, located at 06Z roughly along
   a TOP-AVK line.  Severe gusts have been clocked at several observing
   sites over the past couple hours, including HUT, SLN and AVK.  At
   525Z, a significant-severe (67-kt) gust struck the May Ranch mesonet
   in northern Woods County OK, from a tail-end bow echo located
   astride the KS/OK border.  That activity has exhibited a pronounced
   rear-inflow jet. 

   Activity will continue to be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates
   and low-level moisture transport above the surface, with relatively
   high theta-e in an elevated inflow layer.  Preconvective VWP over
   the area and planar LLJ forecasts indicate favorable inflow will
   continue for at least a few more hours, despite the diabatically
   driven strengthening of SBCINH.  Modified soundings and model
   soundings yield MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg and still have MLCAPE
   exceeding 2000 J/kg near the KS/OK border, despite the SBCINH, with
   values gradually decreasing northeastward.  Northwesterly 40-50-kt
   effective-shear vectors and mean-wind vectors aligned nearly
   perpendicular to the convective orientation will support damaging-
   wind potential.  Forced ascent along the leading edge of cold pools
   -- both smaller-scale and in aggregate across the complex -- will
   continue to help to overcome CINH, maintaining portions of the MCS
   at or near severe levels into north-central/northeastern OK and
   east-central/southeastern KS.  The potential remains for localized
   surges of significant-severe wind as well within the broader

   ..Edwards.. 06/30/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36469946 36649845 36879828 37299831 37549834 37689760
               38059711 38229705 38369657 38799648 38989697 39189684
               39279524 38609499 36929506 36299595 36069766 36349915

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