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Mesoscale Discussion 1193
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1193
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...Far northeast KS...far southeast NE...and far
   northwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300635Z - 300900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible
   through 07-08Z across far northeast KS, far southeast NE into
   northwest MO.  Thereafter, this activity should diminish in
   intensity as it moves to the southeast, reaching the Kansas City
   metro area by 10Z (5 AM).

   DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery showed the trailing portion of
   a convective outflow boundary, attendant to earlier storms in
   southwest IA, extended into far southeast NE.  The storm moving
   southeast through far southeast NE (from Nemaha County into
   Richardson County) appeared to be located near the aforementioned
   outflow boundary.  Meanwhile, additional storms were developing and
   moving through Riley and Marshall Counties KS into Pawnee and
   western Richardson Counties NE since 0545-0555Z.

   All of these storms were occurring within the northeast extent of
   residual moderate instability and sufficient effective bulk shear
   supporting organized storms.  Low-level inflow into these
   aforementioned storms should eventually become cutoff from a nearly
   solid band of storms extending from north-central OK/south-central
   KS to near and south to southeast of the Kansas City metro, and
   result in diminishing storm intensities/severe potential.  Until
   then, the residual moderate instability and forcing for ascent
   attendant to an eastward-moving MCV (located approximately east of
   KCNK at 0620Z) should prove favorable for one or two additional
   stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and/or locally
   strong wind gusts through 07-08Z.

   ..Peters/Edwards.. 06/30/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39149673 39689665 40339577 40349560 40139480 39909439
               39629429 39429433 39329466 39259596 39149673 

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