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Mesoscale Discussion 1193
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 290633Z - 290800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
   AND CNTRL KS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
   WITH THE ACTIVITY BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED
   OUT. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD CORRIDOR OF
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWWD FROM NWRN OK INTO WRN
   KS. MUCAPE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IS ESTIMATED BY RAP-V2 DATA TO BE IN
   THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE NOSE OF A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
   IS LOCATED ACROSS WRN KS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING. THIS
   CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...SPREADING ESEWD
   ACROSS WCNTRL KS ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH
   THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD INTENSIFY DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...A NEAR SFC
   INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION ELEVATED. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   DEVELOPS NWD EARLY THIS MORNING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WCNTRL
   KS GRADUALLY INCREASE EFFECTIVE-SHEAR PROFILES REACHING THE 30 TO 40
   KT RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES NEAR AND ABOVE 500 MB EVIDENT ON THE DDC 00Z SOUNDING SHOULD
   SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. IN SPITE OF
   THE SFC INVERSION...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE
   CELLS MATURE.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38989872 39300011 39200094 38750127 38370108 38080061
               37699983 37569899 37489825 37519792 37609781 38109760
               38619777 38989872 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2014
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