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Mesoscale Discussion 1194
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1194
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0437 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...Extreme south-central KS and northern OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...

   Valid 300937Z - 301130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383

   SUMMARY...Potential exists for an isolated severe hail threat to
   persist through the early morning in vicinity of the KS/OK border
   area in south-central KS and northwest into north-central OK.  Local
   WFO temporal extension may be needed for southern portions of WW
   383, in the wake of the forward-propagating MCS that will exit the
   southeast part of this WW prior to 10Z.

   DISCUSSION...At 0920Z, radar imagery showed the southern part of the
   KS/OK/MO quasi-linear MCS moving through northeast OK from Nowata
   County to northern Tulsa County.  Any severe wind threat attendant
   to this band of storms will exit the southeast part of WW 383 by
   10Z.  Meanwhile, the outflow boundary attendant to this MCS trailed
   to the southwest through much of the OKC metro (recently moving
   through KOUN) and extending westward in vicinity of the I-40
   corridor through western OK.  Trends in VWP data across the southern
   Plains indicated a veering low-level jet of 40-50 kt extending from
   western TX through western to northeast OK.  Low-level warm-air
   advection and isentropic ascent atop the aforementioned convective
   outflow boundary through central and western OK is supporting the
   ongoing west-east oriented area of storms along the northwest
   OK/south-central KS border, and recent development in Garfield to
   Payne Counties OK.  Residual moderate instability in the wake of the
   leading edge of the KS/OK/MO MCS and effective bulk shear up to 40
   kt suggest storms will remain capable of organization with primarily
   an isolated hail threat.

   ..Peters.. 06/30/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37319947 37339806 37359633 37209514 36669547 36189604
               36009670 36009736 36089860 36169946 36799959 37319947 

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