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Mesoscale Discussion 1194
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W TX...WRN/CNTRL OK...S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261024Z - 261200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL EVENTS WILL
   CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM THE TX S PLAINS
   INTO S-CNTRL KS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR A SWD-MOVING COLD
   FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 N AMA TO NEAR ICT AS OF
   10Z. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH A VEERED 30 KT LLJ
   ORIENTED FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN OF TX INTO THE OZARKS. DESPITE
   GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...SUFFICIENT VEERING OF WINDS THROUGH THE
   MIDLEVELS IS OCCURRING TO YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT.
   LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION IS ASSUMING PULSE TO WEAKLY
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH BRIEF UPWARD PULSES IN
   INTENSITY SUPPORTING INTERMITTENT AND LOCALIZED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. THE LATTER THREAT MAY BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY A DRY
   LAYER NOTED IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AS
   RECENT REPORTS HAVE SHOWN ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ACROSS WEST TX
   AND THE OK PANHANDLE. TRENDS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
   DEVELOPING SWD INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL OK THROUGH MID-LATE
   MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED SVR THREAT REMAINING POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 06/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   37699528 36759611 35519773 33110044 32510170 33410228
               35240180 35800093 36379937 37709833 38359715 38449599
               37699528 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2015
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