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Mesoscale Discussion 1194
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...SCNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291138Z - 291315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS AND
   SCNTRL NEB THIS MORNING WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.
   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND TOO MARGINAL FOR WW
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW OVER THE OK
   PANHANDLE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB.
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN A ZONE OF
   STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER A NEAR-SFC
   INVERSION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY STARTING WITH PARCELS ABOVE 850
   MB. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO
   50 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

   FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NWRN KS...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS IS LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DODGE CITY THIS MORNING SHOW MUCAPE
   APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WITH 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL WITH
   SUPERCELLS THAT PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MORE INTENSE
   DOWNDRAFTS. THE NEAR-SFC INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY LARGELY
   ELEVATED.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41359776 40859785 40129827 38609815 38009866 37779944
               37970006 38920112 40010186 41100152 41429980 41799848
               41359776 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2014
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