Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1195
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1195 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1195
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast OK...southwest MO...and northwest AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384...

   Valid 301130Z - 301330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384

   SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging wind gusts remain a potential
   severe-weather threat through the rest of the early morning to after
   sunrise across northeast OK into northwest AR and southwest to
   south-central MO.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery continued to show a
   quasi-linear MCS advancing to the east-southeast at 35-40 kt across
   northeast OK, far northwest AR and through south-central MO.  A well
   developed cold pool was evident across central and southwest MO,
   with a 45-50-kt northwesterly rear-inflow jet detected in southwest
   MO per SGF WSR-88D VWP data.  This combined with west-northwesterly
   shear vectors aligned nearly perpendicular to the convective
   orientation suggests forward propagation will persist this morning
   as the MCS tracks along a west-northwest to east-southeast oriented
   moderate instability gradient.  Strongest intensities and outflow
   surges should continue to occur in vicinity of inflection locations
   along the leading edge of the MCS.  

   Surface wind gust reports during the last 1-2 hours along the full
   extent of the strongest reflectivity have been sub-severe, though
   locally stronger surges in the line cannot be ruled out during
   remaining valid portion of WW 384. Meanwhile, a veered
   (southwesterly) 45-kt low-level jet extending atop the attendant
   outflow boundary in central to northeast and east-central OK could
   prove favorable for continued warm-air advection and isentropic
   ascent to support elevated storms in the short term.  Steep midlevel
   lapse rates, moderate elevated instability and effective bulk shear
   of 40-50 kt should result in an isolated hail threat, with the
   storms in the wake of the leading edge of the MCS.  Forecast
   weakening of the low-level jet across OK by mid-late morning, with a
   subsequent diminishing trend in ascent, should result in an overall
   decrease in storm intensities and severe threat.

   ..Peters.. 06/30/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36189645 36409597 36429586 36109534 36409410 36549361
               37169305 37589271 37809256 37979205 37369161 36839213
               36449258 35389336 35279396 35329501 35539556 35489613
               35729655 36189645 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: June 30, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities