Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1195
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1195 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NRN AR...SRN IL AND IN...WRN KY AND NWRN
   TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 261650Z - 261845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM SERN MO/NERN AR INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
   SWRN MO...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT DOWNSTREAM LATER TODAY. OTHER
   DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL WITH ONE OR
   MORE WATCHES LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.

   SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN MO INTO WRN
   KY/SRN INDIANA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT FROM NERN OK INTO SWRN MO.
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CU ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN KY
   PORTION. MEANWHILE...HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES UPSTREAM
   INTO AR WITH SWLY SFC WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR 90 F.
   INCREASED MIXING...AS WELL AS A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE 850 MB FLOW
   SHOULD WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY WITH TIME...AND WILL HELP DESTABILIZE
   THE OH RIVER REGION.

   WHILE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER SWRN MO MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE
   WITH ATTENDANT WIND THREAT...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK BOUNDARIES AND A
   VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY
   WEAK...SUGGESTING MAINLY A MULTICELLUAR STORM MODE AWAY FROM THE
   COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LINEAR.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 06/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
   SGF...

   LAT...LON   36938585 36078726 35768990 35829290 36119326 36609306
               37269175 38009080 38928840 39098714 38898588 38228538
               37688545 36938585 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 26, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities