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Mesoscale Discussion 1195
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NEB...WRN INTO CENTRAL
   IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291902Z - 292100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO WRN AND CENTRAL IA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. AREA
   IS BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...AS MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED AND SHIFTED
   EWD...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...AND
   STRONG DESTABILIZATION WAS OCCURRING IN A MOIST AIRMASS /UPPER 60S
   TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 7 DEG
   C PER KM PER 18Z OAX RAOB/. WHILE THE 18Z OAX AND TOP RAOBS
   INDICATED SOME INHIBITION STILL EXISTS...GREATER HEATING ACROSS
   CENTRAL NEB HAS OCCURRED AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING REMAINS. THIS IS
   EVIDENT IN AGITATED/CONGESTED CU FIELD ALONG THE EFFECTIVE
   FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
   TRYING TO OCCUR AS NOTED BY WEAK ECHOS ON REGIONAL RADAR IN THE
   VICINITY OF BOONE COUNTY NEB.

   ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
   POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
   WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. WITH TIME...AS
   ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LAID OUT BY INDIVIDUAL
   STORMS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41849312 41419329 41039384 40589488 40209587 40029694
               39989851 39989982 40260059 40820083 41440029 41799974
               42669735 43049588 43289455 43019381 42379330 41849312 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2014
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