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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...NRN AND ERN MO...FAR WRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 180601Z - 180730Z
SEVERE STORMS NOW OVER SRN IA ARE SHOWING SIGNS THAT IT MAY BE
GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL
AS LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. A WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER NRN MO AND WRN
IL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE FROM SW IA EWD TO THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION. W TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
CREATING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THIS GRADIENT.
GIVEN MINIMAL CAPPING...SEVERE STORMS OVER SRN IA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONGEAL AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO NRN MO AND WRN IL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH HAIL LIKELY AS WELL.
..JEWELL.. 06/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40279372 40979387 41149317 40989060 40798999 40268960
39228975 39069046 39359146 39589234 39999324 40279372
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