MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454...
   
   VALID 180646Z - 180815Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454
   CONTINUES.
   
   A POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF INTENSE TSTMS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ENEWD
   ACROSS WATCH 454 IN WRN AND NRN NEB. MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS CLUSTER
   OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE TRACKING ENE AT ABOUT 45-50KT AND WILL REACH
   ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH JUST PRIOR TO EXPIRATION AT 10Z.
   
   THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT THESE
   CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MCS EVOLUTION ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL
   NEB THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND MESOSCALE
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANDING COLD POOL ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO
   TAP POOL OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/CAPE THAT LIES ACROSS MUCH ERN/SERN
   NEB. MUCAPE HAS INCREASED TO OVER 3000 J/KG THIS AREA OVER THE PAST
   FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. THUS...EXPECT
   SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT TO PERSIST IN THE WATCH AREA WITH SOME
   POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WATCHES NEEDED DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS SRN SD
   AND ERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/18/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   41739830 41729920 40759912 40660202 40690336 42000324
               41950271 43070279 43019874 42979826 41739830