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Mesoscale Discussion 1196
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291923Z - 292130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
   OR TWO WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED CLOSELY BUT OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
   LOW...LIKELY PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...GENERALLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE HELPING AID
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE.
   INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS MODERATE WITH 19Z OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
   THROUGH THE AREA WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE NEEDED IMPETUS FOR
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IS
   EXPECTED TO KEEP TSTM COVERAGE SCATTERED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30 TO
   40 KT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...PARTICULARLY
   WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS POSSIBLE. OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND A
   WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 06/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   45159579 46199501 47939249 48099063 47968970 47418945
               46029030 44619293 44349435 45159579 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2014
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