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Mesoscale Discussion 1196
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MD 1196 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1196
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...portions of northeast PA...central/eastern
   NY...VT...western MA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301648Z - 301915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
   intensity during the afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and
   isolated large hail.  Trends will be monitored for the possibility
   of a severe thunderstorm watch over portions of the area prior to

   DISCUSSION...Diurnal destabilization is underway across much of the
   discussion area as sufficient breaks have been noted in cloud
   cover/ongoing precipitation over central/eastern NY, with more
   robust heating across northeast PA. Despite weak mid-level lapse
   rates, dew points in the mid/upper 60s will lead to pockets of
   MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 j/kg range this afternoon. Modest
   large-scale ascent and strenghtening mid-level flow associated with
   a convectively enhanced mid-level impulse will develop across the
   discussion area over the next several hours, and an increase in
   thunderstorms is expected during the early-mid afternoon. Largely
   unidirectional flow and deep-layer shear ranging from 35-45 kts will
   be favorable for multicell clusters/short line segments and a few
   supercell storm structures. Damaging winds will be the primary
   severe weather threat, though isolated instances of large hail will
   also be possible. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed over portions of the
   discussion area prior to 19Z.

   ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/30/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41077540 41087642 41407709 41797711 42657666 43027637
               43297610 43607515 43897445 44217397 44477300 44207241
               43677201 42617245 41777342 41077540 

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