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Mesoscale Discussion 1197
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291944Z - 292145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH FAR NW AL WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS NRN AL. SOME LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW...LIKELY
   PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING INTO NW AL HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME
   INCREASE IN FORWARD-PROPAGATION WITH STORM SPEED CURRENTLY ESTIMATED
   AROUND 30 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATION AT MSL RECENTLY REPORTED A 37 KT
   GUST. UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS
   FORWARD-PROPAGATION WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
   GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE WEAK SHEAR WILL LIKELY PREVENT MEANINGFUL STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND KEEP THE OVERALL SVR RISK LOW. HOWEVER...TRENDS
   ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASED STORM ORGANIZATION.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 06/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34688770 34918729 34978631 34688564 34078579 33668619
               33528709 33988815 34688770 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2014
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