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Mesoscale Discussion 1197
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...NWRN ARK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261935Z - 262100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND
   HAIL. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BY 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1930Z...STRONG TSTMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS NWRN
   AR...JUST TO THE WEST OF WW 359...WITH OTHER STORMS INCREASING IN
   INTENSITY ACROSS ERN OK TO THE NORTH OF MLC. A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN
   IS IN PLACE...WITH A SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM NWRN AR
   SWWD INTO SWRN OK...ANOTHER SFC TROUGH EVIDENT FROM NEAR TULSA WWD
   INTO N-CNTRL OK...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN OK INTO SERN
   KS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
   THESE BOUNDARIES. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST
   /GENERALLY 20-25 KTS PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS/...MODERATE-TO-STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND HIGH PW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS. IN
   ADDITION...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE STRONGEST CORES ARE
   AT PEAK INTENSITY...THOUGH A WIDESPREAD HAIL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.
   WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BY 21Z IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 06/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34819682 34939747 35489758 35919729 36299659 36519502
               36469465 36369420 36159361 35919349 35469346 35189391
               35029474 34819682 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2015
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