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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...GA...SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456...
VALID 180745Z - 180945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456
CONTINUES.
MATURE MCS WITH WELL-DEFINED ARC OF INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF DEEP COLD POOL WAS SPREADING SEWD AT 25-30KT ACROSS SERN GA
AND SRN SC EARLY TODAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE SUFFICIENT MOMENTUM
AND AVAILABLE MASS INFLOW AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL EXIST ALONG THE
SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS. THIS AREA WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WHERE WLY
LLJ IS DIRECTED ACROSS/ATOP THE EXPANDING COLD POOL. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MARGINAL HAIL WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD OUT OF WATCH 456 AND INTO
PARTS OF EXTREME SERN GA/NRN FL BEYOND 10Z.
..CARBIN.. 06/18/2009
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31008213 31438308 31928363 32538396 32958318 32688245
32958156 33468004 32957893 32297988 31188101 31008213
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