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Mesoscale Discussion 1197
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MD 1197 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1197
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...much of Indiana...southeast lower
   Michigan...western Ohio...portions of extreme northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301756Z - 302000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A risk for damaging winds and isolated large hail will
   exist across the area this afternoon. Short-term trends will be
   monitored for the possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch in the
   19Z-20Z time frame.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage across
   portions of east-central Illinois and central/northern Indiana as
   diurnal heating of a very moist air mass continues near/in advance
   of a weak confluence zone/residual outflow boundary from northwest
   Indiana south into southern Illinois.  Moderate surface-based
   instability is in place across the area, and large-scale ascent
   associated with a convectively-induced mid-level impulse will
   develop over the area during the remainder of this afternoon.  A
   modest increase in mid-upper-level flow will contribute to
   deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts by late afternoon, supporting
   multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells with mid-level
   rotation.  Damaging winds will be the primary threat, and isolated
   instances of large hail will also be possible.

   Convective trends will be monitored and a severe thunderstorm watch
   may be needed in the 19Z-20Z time frame.

   ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/30/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38448564 37608693 37828805 38678806 39258813 39788769
               40348734 40608708 41088654 41488608 41798555 42768387
               42858320 42578298 41938323 41428285 41108279 40558294
               39768374 39108459 38448564 

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